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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (28781)	2/16/2001 4:39:34 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

John, The word from Europe this morning is that the slowdown is worse than expected, and expected to last through Q2 at least. Scumbria

To: Petz who wrote (28781)	2/16/2001 6:21:38 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

John, A curiosity question -- Why did you cover your Feb 25s? My understanding is that expiration/assignment takes place on Friday with transaction on next trading day. Though I can remember -- last May, I think -- when the stock closed $0.25 over the call price & when I talked to the brokers they said that I could specify to buy no matter what the price. It seems to me that you gave up $0.29/share on that trade. Are you thinking that for $0.29/share you don't want to take the chance someone would ask to exercise out of the money options against settlement Tuesday morning? Please tell me how it works. tgptndr

To: Petz who wrote (28781)	2/17/2001 11:56:12 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

John: "Well, I think the PC slump is worse than AMD anticipated in their guidance so I expect AMD may warn in a few weeks." Didn't AMD already suggest that Q1 will be flat at best coming in around 6.5 to 7 million processors which implies earnings in the $0.35 to $0.45 range??? I'll be surprised if Q1's any worse than that (in fact I think that was AMD might have been lowballing in that forecast)...If so, given that the fed has little choice but to accommodate on interest rates (i.e worst fed scenario is flat...which won't happen, imho), and given that response (improving economic indicators) to fed action lags by 6 months, wouldn't it be reasonable to conclude that Q1 will be AMD's "lightest quarter" in Y2001??? Anything can happen, but I can't see AMD, even in this environment, coming in under $0.35 in Q1...In fact, I'll be surprised if they come in under $0.40... If AMD can earn $0.40 in Q1, the implications for Q2, Q3 and Q4 become quite spectacular in any economic upturn, especially if AMD meets with an iota of success in penetrating server, mobile and workstation spaces with the much awaited new Palomino based offerings... As mentioned yesterday, AMD, at $25, currently trades at a multiple of 50 times Q4 earnings of $0.52...That compares most favourably with INTC, Dell, HWP and NT which trade at 100 times Q4 earnings...all of which implies that AMD has room to double in price to $50 to reach a price that on a relative basis is reasonable...Factor in a huge potential growth factor owing to PC and flash market share gains as well as revenues derived from any new product (which are rumoured to be evolutionary in scope) successes and the numbers become almost dizzying...In fact, AMD's 5 year growth rate could easily be double that of their primary competitors if one extrapolates upon AMD's current market leading product lineups in both flash and microprocessors. What I'm getting at here is that there is a "double whammy" yet to be factored into AMD's price at $25. that being, relative price disparity of $25, and relative growth prospects that could, based upon existing new product developments at AMD, result in a revenue growth rate at least twice that of the companies noted above over the next 5 years...and which, if true, would support conservatively, an AMD P/E ratio not at 50% of the other companies noted but of double those same companies...or $100 in today's market... That AMD remains 1 penny under $40 is one of the greatest anomalies, and for that matter enigmas, in the market place today!!! (Just talked myself into picking up a few more shares this week as I can't see AMD under $25 for any prolonged period...In fact, if AMD can close 3 successive days above $25, I doubt it will fall below $25 again...AMD's price bias is one way and that is up owing to the "double whammy" factors and any knee jerk dips, such as Friday's NT hangover, provide superb buying opportunites for traders and long term holders alike, imho!!!