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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (85571)	2/17/2001 10:27:27 AM
From: BGR	Respond to of 86076

Goodness, HB. My experience is over 8 years. In this time, the S&P500 returned about 17% year, far above the historical norm. While talking about history, I only consider my total estimated investing career, past, present and future. That's about 50 years. In fact, over 50 year periods, S&P500 returns drop to about 12% year. The Japanese example is the only thing going for the bears, isn't it? However, even in Japan, if you average over 50 years, the market is very, very healthy. You believe that you can time markets and make a living. Good for you! Now, would it be impolite to ask what your risk adjusted annual return is, not just over the last year, but over long term? Note: risk-adjusted return.