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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: uu who wrote (41285)	2/16/2001 7:23:46 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Welcome back, my friend Addi. I am not concerned about Sun Microsystems, the company ... it is the macroeconomics, the quickly arriving 2001-2002 recession ... the just barely started lay-off announcements ... the overconfidence on what the Fed might accomplish later this year ... investors and institutions afraid to miss the bottom (which I do not believe is even close yet) ... huge corporate and personal debt, overinvestment in tech and IT spending, unresolved balance of payments issues, the strong dollar issue, a lack of capitulation and fear in the market, too much complacency, over stated productivity improvements, plunging confidence of CEOs and consumers, another warning season around the corner (kicked off early by Nortel - my sympathies), the negative personal savings rate etc. Did I forget anything? <g> If I had held onto all my SUNW stock that I sold from the fall of 1999 through January, 2000, I would be missing some $350,000. Perhaps my analysis and interpretations from my readings of The Economist, Business Week, the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Economists, Contrary Investor, The Wall Street Journal and Barrons are all wrong ... but as usual, I vote with my money (I should say our money). I have a bunch of ABMD (at least half to two-thirds of which I plan to sell in the next three months - putting the proceeds in 90 day T-bills), three S&P 500 June puts and lots of cash (all in 90 day T-bills). If I did not believe so strongly in ABMD's total-artificial-heart, I would be almost 100% in T-bills, and I would probably own five or six S&P puts. Unless I miss my guess, we are looking at a situation very similar to the bear market of the early 1970s - not that prices are headed back to what they were then. This economy and this market are not for me - I guess I made that clear, eh? <g> Ken Wilson Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions.