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To: The Ox who wrote (87522)	2/16/2001 7:17:21 PM
From: pbd007	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

RE Investor Sentiment Saw this article posted on another board.http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=21750636&tid=cmrc&sid=21750636&mid=125205 continued on messages.yahoo.com

To: The Ox who wrote (87522)	2/16/2001 10:01:40 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike. Am going to be as fair as I can. You and have gotten along OK and I see no reason for that to change. And the best thing I can do is respond to you in that context vs taking sides in a dust up that doesn't involve me. The people I've vigorously gone after on this thread have all taken repeated cheat shots at me, and the published sources I've in both my on investment posts AND my off topic my political posts since before the election. You have never done that. Slider has always treated me fairly and we seem to independently come to many of the same conclusions about the markets and the economy. I find that VERY valuable, as I do with the input of Big Bull's first rate macro economic thinking, and the shrewd & saavy market mind Razorback brings to the table. Sharp, Excardog and a few others have also made repeated contributions that have helped me with my investment work. Hope my friend Roebear will post more often, as well as Timelord who clearly is doing some very interesting TA work and ST trading. Then there's Dabum who's developing more quickly as a successful ST trader than anyone I've seen in a long time. On topic. Many long established sentiment surveys have been saying much the same thing lately, Mike. You can look at the AAII, Michael Burke's work at Investors Intelligence survey or any of a host of others. They're all showing: Far too much complacency and numbers more consistent with what you would see at major market tops than at bottoms. If may have been in Sept that I pointed out, although I look at sentiment here, this thread ON AVERAGE, his a higher investor IQ than you will find in most other places(g). So the fact that there's more bearishness here is simply a function of that PLUS the strenuous efforts of yours truly(g), Bill Bull, Slider, Razorback and VERY few others to enlighten our readers here. And based on posts I read today, even JQP is finally beginning to realize how dangerous this economy and market are going to be in the months ahead. I've certainly given him a hard time (deservedly so in my view). But would rather see EVERYONE here get on the right side of this market vs crash and burn the way the thousands of less informed and inexperienced investors will before long. Bear Markets are VERY dangerous and their risks shouldn't be underestimated. My impression is that of the people reading this thread, perhaps half were active investors during the minor Bear of 1990. Even the crash or 87' wasn't a true Bear Market. Though huge losses occurred, the damage took place during a relatively short time frame. And, non-margined players recovered must of their losses fairly quickly. Classic Bear Markets require time as well as price damage. They grind down even many non-margined longs into eventual capitulation. 1981-82 was the last true Bear Market that met both requirements. And I'd be surprised if even 1 out of 5 reading this thread were active investors 18 or 19 years ago during that Bear Market. Returning to the question of sentiment: Based on my experiences, working in Bear Markets, I'd expect to see Bullish sentiment drop below 30% - AT LEAST - before a major bottom occurs. That will take time and a lot of pain for those unprepared for what's ahead. Hope that helps. Isopatch

To: The Ox who wrote (87522)	2/17/2001 8:16:24 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael, >> I would be interested in doing a similar sample here on SD to see what % bulls and bears are contributing here. << I can't say I'm a bear but I have lowered my expectations to the point that nearly all of my trades are very short term. I'm looking for 10-12% profits and I'm trying to profit often. I'm seriously considering cashing in what energy stocks I have left Tuesday AM and I may try to play SGP, JDSU, GX, etc. for some 10-12% upside trades. We may not have seen a bottom in techland but I'll be looking for stocks using a TA indicator known as the Williams %R. For those unfamiliar with this indicator, anything below 20 indicates a stock is oversold and anything above 80 indicates a stock is overbought. Here is a chart of JDSU as an example: stockcharts.com[l,a]declyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iLb14!Lc20!Lk14!Ll14!Lp14,3,3] The indicator may stay below 20 for a while but it does indicate that most of the downside has been priced into the stock. (Disclaimer - I use the other TA indicators listed with the Williams %R to help in my decision.) In summation, cautiously bullish on short term, beaten down, special situation stocks. dabum