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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (18983)	2/16/2001 8:22:31 PM
From: freeus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

Actually I'm not chasing anything...I began buying the building stocks because I thought we were having a longer rally than one day and that was the sector IBD had as doing well (plus the building industry is actually having increased earnings and sales). But I capitulate, finally, and will be getting out of everything but mo and a small amount of a mutual fund I bought in December. Everything else will be in cash, aside from the stuff I'm putting in a bond fund. I will start buying puts when I can figure them out. I doubt that we get a healthy market until the end of the year now...way too much bad news and too many bad forecasts. Freeus

To: mishedlo who wrote (18983)	2/16/2001 11:02:06 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

I have known for a long time that inflation would appear eventually in the economic reports. I anticipated it would not be until summer or thereabouts, but looks like it is here with today's PPI. Unless and until the 12 year trendline in the monthly $COMPX chart is broken, I remain convinced that the $COMPX will rally off that powerful support line as it always has---there is not a single close below that point in 12 years. It should be noted that it was not seriously threatened even today and that the reversal area around 2364 was also not threatened. As long as these remain true, I stand by the chart: long term support will form the technical basis for reversal to the upside. And the $COMPX is at an oversold extreme. Of interest, today's $COMPX candle is actually moderately bullish: askresearch.com Furthermore, today's down market was mostly the result of a huge gap down of over 100 points, and late in the session saw clear evidence of strengthening technicals: askresearch.com On the 5 EMA/8 SMA hourly crossover chart, there is now an early stochastic buy signal, but not yet a crossover buy signal. The stochastic signal is not very reliable, but the much more reliable crossover signals are most often preceded by stochastic signals, sometimes by several hours. 207.61.23.99 So, I anticipate that the most likely scenario from here is a short selloff, then reversal and rally off solid long-term support levels. If these support levels fail, then that would of course be a very bad sign, but I think this very unlikely. I learned in March that the charts, technicals, and internal indicators do not lie. That said, they can change of course, and so extrapolation forward is not a simple task. But ignoring the chart, technicals, and internals invites disaster---particularly at market tops and bottoms. I don't think I have ever made a trade or investment decision with either gut-wrenching fear or giddy greed present which turned out well. These two have always been the bane of my existence and trading, causing me to ignore clear writing on the walls again and again. And the sort of despair all around right now is much more like the ambience of a reversal point. Again, I have said all along that inflation will likely be a major, major problem. It will not go away easily, but for now I still maintain that reversal and a countertrend rally is the most likely scenario going forward, but that further down the road we may be looking at a horrendous selloff. I suspect this would be several months away, but if there are further indications of sharply increased inflation and/or sharply curtailed growth, then that day could be sooner then expected. As always, JMVHO....... Walkingshadow