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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (69348)	2/16/2001 9:13:54 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Kymar, very short term, we could get the "week after" effect, namely, when expiration is a very weak day, there is some nominal strength (probably one day or two early next week?), to get us back just above 2500 or so on the Naz. After such possible strength, we really have only 5 more trading days in February, my current expectations are for a first low on the 28th, with a small rally after that and the ultimate low on March 9th (give each of these a plus/minus two days margin). There is of course the possibility that we do breach 2200 over the next three weeks, and I have an "ouside" probability of reaching just under 2000 (the magic 1900?). I don't have a strong conviction that we are ready yet to get that low. I do have that number (1900) on the Naz as th bottom of the broad trading range for the next 5 to 7 years, I just think that this will come next year when we are once more faced with Fed tightening (We got a first taste today of "inflationary pressures"). Zeev