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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (10368)	2/16/2001 11:06:50 PM
From: brightness00	Respond to of 13572

re: Logic (to me anyway, would be a stack theory). LIFO last in first out. Damaged psychology takes time to repair, IMHO. Take for example, the biotech sector, which was the first to be hit, and the first to come back (to be hit again); semi-conductor, the second to be hit, and the second to come back (and not quite high enough to be hit again yet). All of them IMHO will take some triple cascading to wash out, considering how much exuberence was built into them. BTW, before biotech, there was internet, which was first hit in early spring 1999, just before the Elliot fifth wave lifted the likes of AMZN to the 2nd peak of the double top later that year.

To: mishedlo who wrote (10368)	2/17/2001 9:05:03 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

nope it'd FIFO, also retail leads out, while Uts are normally last but that is changing due to deregulation. << Retail Rally Seen Pointing to Market Gain: US Stocks Outlook New York, Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Retail stocks, which presaged last year's drop in the U.S. stock market, now may be indicating that the worst of the decline is past, investors say. Four of the seven best-performing groups in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index this week were in the retail industry. Department- store chain Nordstrom Inc. and discounter TJX Cos. climbed even as the index dropped for the fourth week in five. Retail stocks are a leading indicator of the health of the stock market because they are a gauge of confidence in the economy, investors say. ``It's a rally that's based on the notion that things are likely to get modestly better here,'' said Alex Vallecillo, who helps manage the $280 million Armada Mid Cap Growth Fund in Cleveland. If the U.S. economy picks up, he said, the retail industry ``is the part of the economy that is going to react first.'' Nortel Networks Corp.'s disappointing sales and profit, announced late Thursday, derailed a rally in the broad market. The S&P 500 dropped 1 percent for the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index, up 3.3 percent through Thursday, ended down 1.8 percent, its third straight weekly decline. An index of the 35 retail stocks in the S&P 500 dropped 30 percent from April 11 through Oct. 12 last year. The stock market echoed the move -- the S&P 500 Index lost 13 percent in the last four months of 2000, bottoming two months after the retail index. Retailers' Gain The retail index has surged 24 percent since its October bottom, led by department stores including Dillards Inc. and May Department Stores Co. The S&P 500 has fallen another 2 percent since then, while the Nasdaq composite is down 21 percent. The broader market may follow the retailers again if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts succeed in reinvigorating the U.S. economy, investors say. Vallecillo recently bought shares of Cost Plus Inc., which sells home furnishings, wine and food, and discount merchandiser Dollar General Corp. BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. is among the fund's largest holdings. Apparel stocks, department stores, drugstores and other retailers posted the biggest gains in the S&P 500 Index this week. Nordstrom and TJX, owner of the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls clothing chains, each gained 12 percent, while Federated Department Stores Inc. gained 11 percent. Three of the 10 biggest gains in the S&P 500 year to date belong to retail stocks -- Dillards, Toys `R' Us Inc. and Kmart Corp. Retailers and other stocks that benefit from a growing economy gained after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. probably will avoid recession this year. Greenspan suggested to the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed is ready to cut rates again to shore up consumer confidence. Some investors said they're more hesitant to buy retail stocks now because no one yet knows the extent of the economic slowdown. ``We still have a consumer-driven economy, and consumer sentiment is so bad now that I'm a cautious buyer of retail,'' said Lynda Calkin, who manages $400 million in small- capitalization stocks at Westwood Management Corp. Calkin said she's holding on to her shares of Barnes & Noble Inc., which have climbed 55 percent since their October low. ``Hopefully, people will still buy books when they're feeling bad about'' the economy, she said. Telecommunications-related stocks posted the largest losses this week. Nortel dropped 34 percent, most of it on Friday, after the No. 1 maker of fiber-optic equipment said it will lose money this quarter because of slowing U.S. sales. Analysts had forecast a profit. Nortel shares have tumbled 77 percent since their peak in July. Corning Inc., the largest maker of optical fiber and cable for telecommunications networks, dropped 19 percent, and JDS Uniphase Corp., the biggest maker of fiber-optic components, lost 16 percent. Schering-Plough Corp. fell 19 percent after the drugmaker said a successor to its best-selling allergy drug Claritin will be delayed until the company fixes manufacturing flaws. Next Week Investors will get further data next week on the state of the U.S. economy. The government is scheduled to report the consumer price index for January on Wednesday. Companies expected to report earnings next week include Agilent Technologies Inc., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Conseco Inc. on Tuesday, Medtronic Inc. Wednesday, Nordstrom on Thursday and Piedmont Natural Gas Co. Friday. U.S. markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday.>> Greg