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To: Dave who wrote (9881)	2/17/2001 8:04:27 AM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14638

Hi Dave - you queried Jack J: yes, we are in recession, but it won't be long - say most of this year. D:I'm curious why you say that. I would expect a recession following the biggest baddest bull run the history of modern economics to be followed by more than a few months of mild recession. I guess the same query can go to your response, why you said that. Just having the longest expansion in history, and consequently, the stk mkt, doesn't mean there is the equal amount of calamity to follow, does it? Please bear in mind that the current posturing of the Fed is easing, yesterday PPI not withstanding. Let's say if the Fed continues to aggressively ease rate in the 1st 1/2 of the yr, there is plenty of monetary stimulus to revive consumer confidence. Obviously, the contrarian view is that the Fed may be too aggressive in easing, causing another irrational exuberance. However, the Fed has plenty of room to go forecasts.org to nip recession in the bud. JMHO best, Bosco

To: Dave who wrote (9881)	2/19/2001 2:25:47 AM
From: jack bittner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

as i understand it neither inventories as an absolute number nor inventories as a percentage of sales have risen much. the latter is the significant number. your second point does give one pause. regression to the mean does seem always highly operative, and that would require much further falling of the stock market. but this time we have two powerful counter-recessionary forces: we have good room to drop interest rates further and we have huge federal revenue surpluses with which to stimulate the economy. i did write i thought it would last most of this year. i did not say it would be mild. i think we'll have "blood in the streets" before the markets begin to rise again. that'll mean lots of people will have to capitulate and swear off stocks. but i'm certain our economy will go on to greater heights.