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To: isopatch who wrote (87567)	2/17/2001 10:36:47 AM
From: k.ramesh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

How does the NAZ index work? I know it is market cap weighted but,just by gut feel, a lot of the stalwarts seem to be even lower now than on Jan 1, yet the Naz is at 2400 and change instead of 2000 or so? Except MSFT in the mid 50's instead of 47, everything else seems lower, all the big caps)? What is holding up Slider's much awaited Naz1800, and how painful is that going to be considering that CSCO after dropping form 50 to 28 does not have that many billions to give up in marketcap as 3 months ago. Ramesh

To: isopatch who wrote (87567)	2/17/2001 11:06:03 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Ratcheting down? biz.yahoo.com The forecast, circulated at a Group of Seven finance meeting in Sicily, is well below the IMF's last official forecast of 3.2 percent published in October and below the Federal Reserve's official estimate of two to 2.5 percent issued last week. Gee! Wouldathunkit?!

To: isopatch who wrote (87567)	2/17/2001 1:46:17 PM
From: que seria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Iso–O/T Naz+TA: I’ve learned from experience how far I fall short of foretelling market moves with even the precision you ask about, so I usually don’t try. But I do set mental exit prices for stocks in this kind of market, even if I change them as events unfold. I only buy paper like NTAP, AVNX, PMCS that I’m willing to wear on the downside as a LT investment. I’ve got a 20 year horizon but stocks I hold for the LT must be ones I think have (not that have proved themselves to have) gorilla/king characteristics (see The Gorilla Game by Moore, et al). That means companies with significant intellectual property rights and/or market position, poised to gain disproportionate share of a high-growth market and deliver outsize profits. Buying with the intent of trading is new to me since the Naz top, and anathema to the holy writ of gorilla gaming practiced elsewhere on SI. I’ve read Slider’s posts for a long time and have been persuaded that trading can be an important part of investing, since macro and sector circumstances can dictate return no matter the company. AVNX and NTAP charts show (bullish) falling wedges. There is risk in each. NTAP has a gap at 26-28 that says “fill me;” AVNX has lots of “insider” selling (early shareholders, not mostly co. execs) and is early stage. My TA guess? I see the Naz having resistance ~2700 via the top of a falling trading channel running from the Sept. 1 2000 retest of resistance around 4300 area. That’s my best guess for a pivot point, and I’d be looking hard at selling most of my tech positions there. I’ve learned to wait to buy or sell until after a trend has reversed, even if it means I pay more or receive less. That way I won’t stop myself out too easily if we go up now, for example. If we see the 1500-1800 Naz scenario unfold, I’ll get out of any other positions and bet the farm on tech. I like lots of cash so that would be a first. My best guess is that a market that took this long to expand won’t hit bottom until well after this Spring--maybe next year.