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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Newberry who wrote (39438)	2/17/2001 12:11:47 PM
From: John Carragher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

two items in the report. Discounts for cars had expired. Of course they will be back in if not already. The other was increase in cigarettes. ( I believe it was a tax increase)

To: D. Newberry who wrote (39438)	2/17/2001 2:43:23 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Not that we are highly skilled economists, but it seems to linger in my memory that the historical record shows when we reach a point in the business cycle where the slowing down stops slowing so much, a slight uptick in inflation is a normal thing. Without digging through my library of books, I don't have a reference for that data. Nor would I be able to interpret Friday's PPI number in relationship to previous times in history. I would imagine that it gets treated as a one month indication until data for several months has been collected. However, if somebody has a handy reference to an economic business cycle book in terms of inflation, feel free to post a source. I would imagine we will have to get used to a lot of jawboning about the economy for about a two year period - even if interest rates and a possible tax cut stimulates the business cycle. In the past, we know it influences investment decisions simply due to investor sentiment and yield spreads. It will be discussed to no end - believe me. The good news is that life will go on as will the majority of the companies we follow... BB