ZEEV:Brusca: Paranoia Strikes Deep
cnbc.com
"Be afraid. Be very afraid.
It's not just fear of inflation but fear of
Fed policy error that has grown. "
I don't think I can agree with your statement:
" Health care is now about , what, 15% of GDP...".
I think it is going up by another 5% or more to whatever number you give me.
When Medicare started it was only 1%.
Per Brusca: " surprising is the rise in car prices as sales flag ",
confirms my fears about health care which I posted previously.
Message 15369018
The Big 3 are unable to lower prices, and pay for the UAW's
astronomical health costs in the litigious environment we are in.
They cannot pay for current employees as well as their employees.
The UAW ( and other ) workers these days are increasingly ending up in the hospital.
Obesity is at 60%, a record high. Overweight, stressed out,
with hypertension, smoking,working overtime, their diabetes out of control.
OK, you can take this beating for
a few years while you are young. But as you turn 55,
these baby boomers are now starting to get heart attacks,
angioplasties, heart catheterization, monthly doctor
visits, time off, lather rinse and repeat, because you
can do the above 6 - 7 times over until you get a by pass
and then you keep doing it again.Plus stress tests, Cardiac
Cath. Nuclear scans whatever.
There is an Acute, National, Nursing shortage.
You will have to pay these nurses much more. That is not being
factored in.
You may have noticed, many docs have, that there are now relatively fewer
lawsuits: why? Because docs are smart. They learn fast, real fast.
Here's how docs have solved the problem. Simply,
we throw all the medical technology we got at it. We test, retest,
and test again. We call in all kinds of specialist on a case:
there 142 recognized medical specialties now !!!!
And one person could theoretically use them all before croaking.
Here's the latest one, the" new kid on the block ":
It is called Critical Care Medicine. These docs are fantastic.
sccm.org
chestnet.org
They will keep you going in any shape, good or bad, till the cows come home.
They'll do what you ask while you are in an Intensive care Unit.
We are talking $3000/day. After 1 week you can buy a car.
After 2 weeks you could have bought yourself a Cadillac
We all will end up there sooner or later.
These docs make $300,000+/year and rising.Demand is sky rocketing.
The Nation thought that the healthcare monster Genie had
been bottled in in 1980 under the infamous DRG guidelines
( " we pay you a flat fee.....yeah right...what a joke...).
So Health care is raising it's monstrous head with a vengeance that will surprise people.
New hires in tech land these days don't want worthless options.
That con game is gone.They want cash , health and benefits.
Inflation and stagflation.
So, you either
cut health quality .( not option.That's been don via HMO and failed )
or,
you cut spending on it( Americans don't want to do that yet and they sue)or
you cut litigation ( not option, since Lawyers run Congress )
or
you let the dying go ( not an option yet. Look how many
links there are to tell you " your time is up ".
chestnet.org
They just don't believe you.
My bottom line is that there are many hidden costs in health care that folks are missing.
I wall repeat it one more time:
Few, none, has any idea how costly all the above can be.
I am telling you F_E_W__N_O_N_E__has paid enough money
into insurance to pay for all this humongous care.
The biotech craze has only added fuel to this distorted view
of healthcare, what is possible, and what it will cost,
and who's going to pay.
We will all pay at the end.
As Lucky Luciano used to say:
" There is no free lunch in America ".
( well... maybe it wasn't Lucky. He did try though ),
Inflation and Stagflation........
and the Fed will be powerless,
TA
===================================================================
You said:
Message 15369695
Message #69382 from Zeev Hed at Feb 17, 2001 12:37 PM
Tunica, there is no doubt that health care might become an engine of
inflationary pressures (reduced supply in face of increasing demand), but
will it cause a major inflationary wave? I am not sure,
Health care is now about , what, 15% of GDP?
In the rest of the economy, we have excess capacity, from steel to autos, to
gold, and to semiconductors and some segments of the IT space. In rough
numbers, we have about 22% of GDP with some inflationary pressures (I am
adding to health care another 7% for energy, but most of the inflationary
impact of crude being around $30, is already in the "numbers") and a good
50%, stale and the balance of 28% essentially in a deflationary phase, it
may all balance out, I really do not know for sure.
Zeev |
