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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (42319)	2/17/2001 3:47:05 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine, No argument about Moore's law, or this sector being cyclical. The stock prices are even more cyclical than the sector. However, I suspect that there are many much better candidates for shorting than the leader in an already beaten down sector. Can AMAT go lower? Of course. Will it? Probably. But to me, it's a gamble not an investment to risk one's assets on betting that it will. And time is not on the side of one who shorts AMAT. On the other hand, I believe that one could buy AMAT at $50 today and have a near certainty of a double within 3 years; probably much less. And unlike the 96-98 downturn, none of the gurus are whispering that growth in chip usage is a thing of the past - this is now a mature industry which won't grow faster than the GDP. We can still expect this sector to outpace the GDP for years to come. IMO. Ian.