tim,
thanks for those thoughts.
i believe we are at a stage where buying for the long term is a difficult thing to do. i haven't talked much with my colleagues about their outlook, but my guess is they're just dollar cost averaging into the same mutual funds---big caps,,,blue chips,,,,indexes.....most of my colleagues don't have the time or inclination to do much else.
from perusing the various threads....seem that we're starting to have more bears than we used to. folks are talking about easy shorts....etc...the momentum is shifting as it always does....the pendulum never stays still.
i don't know if we're at a bottom, at an intermediate bottom, or we're headed for 500 on the naz....it doesn't matter to me....and i can't forecast very well.
my personal perspective and timeframe is probably different from most people on SI. i don't have time to trade, and i can't time the market. i want reasonable returns. the high premiums i listed are obviously not without risk. there are certainly safer plays,,,so the money i put into something like imnx is small,,,but i'm happy to see the potential for a big return and protection for downside risks.
yes,,,we have a recession...telecoms,,,optics...all the high flyers are getting a beating. the momentum up and the momentum down can be relentless. however, i am not a pessimistic person....and my longterm outlook remains positive.
technology is and will be an increasingly significant player in all of our lives. i didn't step in front of the oncoming train this past year. i thought the market was outrageous and stocks going bonkers on news releases made for an insane environment....but i wasn't smart enough to short the beast either....so i just stepped aside..perhaps my outlook is simply not that bad because i wasn't taken out to the woodshed last year...however...i have made some seriously dumb moves in the past,,,so i'm not without some understanding of how painful it can be.
my retirement money just gets dollar cost averaged into various funds...biotech,,,healthcare,,,telecom....blue chips,,,mid caps..energy....hell,,,i even have some in a gold fund...-g-
philosophically,,,i believe there'll be an ever increasing number of people involved in the market...not fewer. it'll be a heck of a roller coaster ride and betting the farm on one sector or one stock is dumb,,,but a diversified investment portfolio held over a long time will simply be the best way to save for the long haul. there are risks,,,but nothing in life is without some risks.
sorry for the jabbering.
mike |
