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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Venkie who wrote (31301)	2/17/2001 1:46:49 PM
From: Dealer	Respond to of 65232

From Signal Watch: NASDAQ and OEX Clearly, the NASDAQ did not go higher after gapping up yesterday. Today's behavior was really weird. How many times have you seen a chart with a one day reversal, coming off the lows? It just never happens. The power of sudden news entering the market cannot be underestimated. Now, we are sitting just above our belwether short zone, at support of 2,400. ** If we break it, I think we are going Lower. Oddly, we have good signs of an upper resistance at 2,450. Early Longs could be called for if we cross that level - but only if you can watch and exit on a move through it the other way. The OEX clearly dropped through 685, making us short intraday at the Open. On that index, we are going to use 678 as our new resistance, or "fulcrum" level. In Summary: In the medium term, this market is just plain nuts. As I said above, I've never seen a market coming off lows, break a trendline on a gap and then turn right around the next day, with a bigger gap, to go back to the lows. Now, we are going to have to wait and see what new information enters the charts for a couple of days. I still feel going Long above 10,850 is prudent, and would consider cautious Longs above 2,450 on the NASDAQ. If we break 10,725 (Dow) or 2,400 (NASDAQ), the market is likely trading lower before it rebounds. Thanks for listening, and good luck in your trading! Ed Downs edowns@nirvsys.com --------------------- Short vs. Medium Term: The short term is defined as 1-4 days. Most short term commentary is relevant to day traders for the following session. The medium term is 1-4 weeks. Fulcrums: A fulcrum is essentially a "line in the sand" or "demilitarized zone" in the battle between bulls and bears. These lines, identified by experience, are equilibrium points between buyers and sellers, and are usually found in the centers of consolidations (trading ranges). When price moves away from a fulcrum, it usually moves quickly and a great distance