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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (69417)	2/17/2001 6:05:03 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Kymar, an excellent chart, and I think that indeed the 1900 level will hold. The only problem with this chart, IMHO, is that it traces the history of the major bull market from August 1982 to today (what I should call, a mega trend). In the coming decade, I think that we will consolidate in a broad range from that bull move (and thus the bottom increasing trend line will be higher than current bottom prices, and be breached, as ascending trend lines usually are during bear markets. The generational shift, IMHO, will not b the buying opportunity between here and 1900, but the stagnation of the market for a long period of time like the stagnation from 1966 to 1982. Zeev

To: KymarFye who wrote (69417)	2/17/2001 6:22:50 PM
From: Doug	Respond to of 99985

Kymar:The passive component suppliers have always been an excellent indicator for the health of the non Software Techs.. In 95 and 98 , the passives took 8-9 mths to reach their low. Based on that , we still have 3 mths of downhill time if not more. In fact the forecast from the passives and the Semi test Eqpt indicates sales will be near flat in 2001 followed by an increase in 2002. The Semi market showing percentage of the market and the growth was as follows a few months ago. Data Processing 38% ; 12% Communication 16% ; 14% Industrial /Medical/Audio 16%; 13% Consumer/Audio/video/Appliances/ 8%; 10% Military 14%; 5% Transportation 7%;11% Currently DRAM/SRAM prices are in decline with some cuts over 50%. It is expected that the CMOS,Bi-CMOS, Bi Polar semis will lead followed by the ASICS and much later by the Compound semis & PLD's whose demand is dependent on WAN /MAN expansion. It would be great if this could be verified by thru some relevant charts or Silicon contacts.! Good luck.!.