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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (127705)	2/17/2001 6:54:25 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: "I went through the exercise with Frank a few months ago, where I projected Intel's revenue and earnings growth forward to 10 or 20 years, and I came up with Intel revenue several times higher than the GDP of the entire planet" Your conclusion makes no sense. Don't you think that if Intel continued to grow like that the GDP would expand as well? How could Intel's revenues be more than the GDP when it's part of the GDP? EP

To: Joe NYC who wrote (127705)	2/18/2001 12:30:21 AM
From: Tushar Patel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Actually this just does not hold up. Intels revenues last year were about 33B. Its 10 year revenue growth rate is about 25%. 5 year revenue growth rate is around 15%. If we use the higher number, 10 years from now that would translate into 300B revenue. If we use the 5 year average, the revenue number 10 years from now goes to 85B. The largest company in terms of revenue is at 232B ALREADY (Exxon-Mobil). As far as 85B goes, we ALREADY have 14 companies that exceed that number (XOM, WMT, GM, F, DCX, BP, GE, TM, TOT, ENE, NTT, RD, AXA, IBM). In 10 years, expect many more. Even with 25% revenue growth over 20 years starting at 33B gets to 1.2 Trillion. This is a huge number but hardly the GDP of the world. GDP of the US alone ALREADY is around 10 Trillion. At 3-4% growth, that will go to around 20 Trillion in 20 years. tushar