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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjetstream who wrote (1956)	2/17/2001 9:31:22 PM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 74559

Barrons: "we are negative on the markets because we do not believe that interest-rate cuts from present levels will have the effect predicted. When rates were cut in the mid 'Ninties', the market were at half their present level, in the early 1990's at one-third their present level. The speculative building boom in big cities and even small towns has been going on for years now, and lower interest rates may mitigate carrying costs, but the rash of layoffs and bonus cuts will have a negative effect on construction. INTEREST RATES IN JAPAN ARE NEAR ZERO, BUT THOSE LOW RATES HAVEN'T RESCUED THE JAPANESE FROM THE EXCESSES OF THE LATE 1980's. So too, we believe, for our economy and stock markets. 'The Lemley Letter' Barrons 02/19/01 *Note - this week certian indicators did turn bullish, a number of bears have also switched camps. Interest rate cuts, another test and support of lows on the NAS - have a strong chance of creating a strong counter rally due to institution support and short covering. This will allow them to exit positions at a higher price and unload to sucker Americans thinking the absolute bottom is in. Do not be net short tech right now, be net short non technology bloated sectors. The rally in the NAS should cause net outflows from other sectors. Play this rally long, then do not get too greedy and watch for a top to set shorts again for the next leg down which sould take the NAS below the old low. Just me two cents in what I have seen in my latest reading of all the fun newsletters, journals, newspapers, chat sites, web sites..... West