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Technology Stocks : SILICON STORAGE SSTI Flash Mem -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uranus_ who wrote (1665)	2/18/2001 11:37:07 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1881

Uranus: We'll short term since its 3 years away I assume the fundamental impact is nil. I still think the stock impact wouldn't start to be felt for 18 months prior to production / sale date. That gives us 18 months (hey I always miss the timing so take it for what its worth). If IBM is able to produce the product in volume it would have a significant impact on fundamentals and stock price. Still too far away to guess impacts. My problem with SSTI (I'm neutral, sold my position day after earnings, ouch) is the forward guidance (or lack there of). CEO really didn't seem to understand the impact competition will have on the company (listen to his response to Jonathan Josephs question on this). In a normal year if you expect 30% price decreases (with impact to margins) you can expect a 50% this year (at least). So I'm actually more negative on the stock for the next 6 - 9 months. I expect more push outs and cancelations. It may put a double bottom in @ 9 ish and bounce but there is too much capacity for memory @ this point in time. The recent NT & CSCO news only drives home the point of inventory issues. From a management perspective I think (IMO) they are taking the right steps. I blame myself for not recognizing the signs of trouble (insider sales & no preannouncment as other flash producers exceeded expectations). Good luck Tim