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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (63936)	2/17/2001 11:14:58 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116764

Can't go into a recession while the Fed has room to lower and print money at the same time. So true, until the interest can't go lower and the dollars are too many. Japan.

To: Zardoz who wrote (63936)	2/18/2001 3:43:56 AM
From: Abner Hosmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

>>Can't go into a recession while the Fed has room to lower and print money at the same time.<< Isn't this what we are seeing reflected in the PPI numbers.. Only thing that can give us a gold bull is investment demand. I've always felt that the last bull market in gold had a lot to do with the Carter presidency and the perception that the US was losing the Cold War. Maybe if people felt that their standard of living was seriously threatened we could see some movement. Everyone has become accustomed to living hand to mouth. What happens if your spouse gets laid off, or you can't sell your house for the same price you paid 5 years ago. Let's say we see a contraction in asset values while energy prices get stiff. The unconscious perception or assumption since Reagan has been that the US is invulnerable. If anything happens to change that, say an economic contraction severe enough to cause people to alter their standard of living, I think gold will enter a bull market. I think a feeling of trepidation is needed for a bull.. a sort of "just in case" mentality, a need for a safe haven, an economic fallout shelter, if you will. Something to protect oneself from economic erosion. People don't perceive that yet. I think your point about US bux gathering all inflows is a valid one. What alternatives are there? Europe does not have the political will to undertake the restructuring necessary to fill the role. The biggest threat I think is oil, but the Arabs are smart enough to know which side their bread is buttered on. There is no alternative to having the US for a friend. It is a matter of survival for them. Perhaps the political stability of these entities is the biggest risk.