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To: shadowman who wrote (47557)	2/18/2001 11:22:44 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Any thoughts on STAGFLATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To: shadowman who wrote (47557)	2/18/2001 1:22:21 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

On Fleckenstein. He may have a few points but then again he is attacking a sector that's already been brought down 50-98% depending on which stock you look at. Calling for LU's "death" is absurd. That's overkill if I ever saw it. If he really think that we're headed for a big long recession then housing might be the place to short as it's been unscathed so far. And to compare the US economy to Japan's is also absurd. Their real estate market in the 80's was so over-priced it was ridiculous. And when it came down the banks went with it. I'm no expert on Japan except to know that they had leveraged themselves like no other economy for infinite limitless growth. The US market and real estate is relatively fair valued, in fact it's cheap by comparison. True you can find a few richly-priced stocks like CIEN but maybe they deserve it. To attack IBM is senseless. IBM is doing fine and was undervalued not overvalued all throughout our tech boom. IBM has something like 13 billion in guaranteed income per year on longterm contracts alone. There has never been a bubble there to burst. So perhaps Fleckenstein is being over pessimistic or even trying to prop up a short position of his own. I'd take it with a grain of salt. It's easy to be pessimistic after a big sell-off but if there's tech blood in the streets maybe that's the contrarian indicator. All about picking the bottom and we frankly won't know where it is until we've already been there and moved back up. At least short term I expect a bounce from Friday's big sell-off. And stocks like VZ and IBM will probably remain safe havens. Because they were undervalued not overvalued to begin with.

To: shadowman who wrote (47557)	2/18/2001 2:13:58 PM
From: Qone0	Respond to of 57584

Re: "Bill the Bear" Fleckenstein. This guy is a hoot. Very confused but still a hoot. You do notice how he never gives a number of where he thinks NASDAQ is going to bottom..lol.. Here are a few snips from his 1/02/01 article. The day nasdaq bottomed. Still predicting doom and gloom. Where does he want NASDAQ at 0?..lol.. siliconinvestor.com Everyone thinks Easy Al is going to be able to save the day. My scenario, subject to revision, is as follows: we are only going to get a meaningful bounce once we have the big puke/panic selling, and we haven't seen that yet. I guess close to 3 billion share vol down days and over a 50% retracement are not enough for Bill..lol..what does he want a 10 billion down day and NASDAQ at 500? If we have a wipeout in January, which I think is a high probability, we could then have an aggressive move from the Fed and see a substantial rally for awhile. Ahhhh. Perhaps the most telling statement he has ever made. He really does believe the FED can turn the econmy around with agressive cuts. Or he is VERY confused..lol..Read the 1/03/01 article its a hoot just to see his reaction to the FED cut.

To: shadowman who wrote (47557)	2/18/2001 3:59:07 PM
From: Dennis O'Bell	Respond to of 57584

The problem with him is he's a classic one trick pony. Information is quantitatively measured by the "surprise" level in a message. Has anyone ever been surprised by anything Fleckstein has written? It's always the same rap over and over... so what use is it? Apart from preaching to his choir. I don't think very many people still seriously anticipate an all-hell-breaking-loose market crash anymore. The market had it's chance for that scenario last year and it didn't happen, even though there were a few exciting days here and there.