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To: isopatch who wrote (87640)	2/18/2001 12:37:07 PM
From: JHR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Some conflicting indicators from the Chartist: Bullish:1)NYSE A/D line in a strong uptrend since late Nov. and recently reached highest level since Feb 2 2000. It bottomed on Oct 18 and is up 35.4 % in 112 market days which is the strongest run-up in both magnitude and duration in several years. 2) the percentage of stocks above their 30 day moving average has moved above 70% for the first time since 1997. Bearish 1) AAII shows top heavy 56% bullish vs 14% bearish sentiment. 2) % of Investment Advisory services as measured by Investors Intelligence to 61.8% from 43.4% on last Oct 25. 3) Commitment of Traders report shows commercial hedgers, the mutual and pension fund managers are now short 93215 S&P 500 contracts, exceeding their old record. 4) Fed's Flow of Funds report for 3Q showed Stock Market Capitalization at 189% of GDP, a huge level.. It is down from 207% from !Q. In perspective the average over the last 75 years has been 48%. Previously recorded highs were around 80% in August 1929 and December 1972.. On the other hand this number has been at extreme levels for 6 years. However so were Japan's when their's hit 135% in Dec 1989. The Chartist is 53% equities as of Feb 8 which is the date of the above remarks as well.