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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (18992)	2/18/2001 12:36:06 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 19374

"So, in conclusion, I don't know if 2400 will hold, but I certainly think we'll see a buying op if we can have a little mini-crash next week (breaking 2300-2400...big down days....cause AG will jump in.....how long/high that rally will last is subject to debate, but it should be a decent one, IMO, and will bring in some institutional guys for a fat trade (until the cycle down begins again) " This reminds me of the chestnut: If a man has an IQ of 150, you can discuss astrophysics with him. If an IQ of 100, then baseball is good. If 50, then discuss interest rates. <<w>> Frankly, all I know is that the Fed Funds rate will most likely hit 3% before this round of cuts is over. How long it takes is not worth my time to speculate on. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ the Fed has acknowledged (surprisingly, I'd say) the link between the markets and consumer confidence.... Since 2/3 of the economy is driven by the consumer this is not an unreasonable concern for the Chairman to espouse. What is remarkable and scary about the Chairman is the utter horse$#!+ he mouthed about productivity in the most recent Humphrey-Hawkins Blatherfest. Here's Caroline Baum's take on this: quote.bloomberg.com The alternative view -- that the aftereffects of a long period of over-investment in information technology, manifested by a stock market bubble, will take a long time to correct -- is not his view at the moment. Nor should we expect it to be. If Greenspan were to own up to a burst bubble, he might have to accept some responsibility for creating it, not to mention puncturing it. This is not something a Fed chairman in his twilight years would wish to be remembered for. If Greenspan's correct, ``the degree of retrenchment will presumably be limited,'' he said. ``Prospects for high productivity growth should, with time, bolster both consumption and investment demand. Before long in this scenario, excess inventories would be run off to desired levels.'' What is risible about this is that the Chairman is mouthing the same nonsense that the wire house analysts with their ROV (Return on Value) voodoo prognostication of the sell side analyst. Here's a smart SIer (sigh) who pretty well sums up my fears that the Chairman is soon to be considered in the same sentence (and on the same ward) as our dearly beloved (how can we miss you if you won't go away?) Ronald Reagan. Message 15348748 From: A.L. Reagan Tuesday, Feb 13, 2001 11:21 PM View Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10402 Here's how Alan Greenspan figures out the state of the economy: Corporate managers more generally, rightly or wrongly, appear to remain remarkably sanguine about the potential for innovations to continue to enhance productivity and profits. At least this is what is gleaned from the projections of equity analysts, who, one must presume, obtain most of their insights from corporate managers. According to one prominent survey, the three- to five-year average earnings projections of more than a thousand analysts, though exhibiting some signs of diminishing in recent months, have generally held firm at a very high level. Such expectations, should they persist, bode well for continued strength in capital accumulation and sustained elevated growth of structural productivity over the longer term. Sheesh, he's making monetary policy based on sell-side analyst reports? The same info sources that led to trillions of dollars of market cap vaporization? (I used to think A.G. was unfairly picked on, but if he's reading Henry Blodgett and Abby Jo to make Fed decisions, God help us.) federalreserve.gov Go Figure, Ray :)