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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bobby beara who wrote (69483)2/18/2001 1:29:37 PM
From: KymarFye  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Charts for possible Nasdaq bottom/testing scenarios:

Candlesticks possibly pointing to bottom at/near 100% retracement of '99 - '00 bull move:

home.pacbell.net

Alternative speculative testing scenarios (based on absolute highs/lows, shared anchors for retracements, trendlines, support/resistance):

home.pacbell.net

Simple chart of major trend-line and retracement levels for '90s Bull Market, anchored at same beginning point (for reference):

home.pacbell.net

Monthly chart, major support at 61.8% retracement of secular bull market in techs ('82 - '01), intersection with '90 - '01 trendline (pretty, simple chart, posted earlier in support of Zeev scenario):

home.pacbell.net

How NOT to interpret my charts:

In my opinion it's an art, not a science - no use in pretending otherwise.

I do not believe there is or can be one and only one clear, perfect, exact, and correct way to draw a trendline - except in retrospect.

Ruptures of trend-lines and support levels do not necessarily call for diametrical reversals.

Broken support or resistance can be re-mounted. Major ruptures are usually receive dramatic confirmation in fairly short order.

The longer the timescale, the less impact on the final results from minor adjustments (e.g., using '90 low instead of '91 reaction on major tech bull trendline).



To: bobby beara who wrote (69483)2/18/2001 6:40:37 PM
From: Boplicity  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
re: CSCO

I have 23 for CSCO, but I bet you it gets to 20 on the panic. CSCO at 20 would be trading at around 1.5 project % 5 year growth 33%. Maybe that is too much. <g> Also, at 23, all of 1999 would be wiped-out.

stockcharts.com[w,a]dbolnimy[df][pb25!b50!b100!b200!a23!f][vc60][iUc20!Ua12,26,9!Lb14!Lf!Lg!Lj[$spx]]

Greg