SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Razorbak who wrote (87646)2/18/2001 1:46:53 PM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
What all dem wiggly lines mean?!(g)

Good post.

But on the short side? Yes, think there just might be a few heavy CHK longs to be heard from, lol. One's been trying to behave. Let's see if this one gets post him without a few sparks(g).

Keep up the good work. Am enjoying the 1st class TA.

Iso



To: Razorbak who wrote (87646)2/18/2001 1:51:12 PM
From: Don England  Respond to of 95453
 
razor,

nice charts. i need to transfer some of my chart-looking over there. no comment on the charts you presented, but i plugged the osx into your parameters and still do not see a breakdown. i see a nice upward trend that has held at the bottom of its range. i see sideways consolidation here at the worst. which, as another said recently, might mean a little stair-stepping down.

would appear from many comments that several of us are going against the grain and holding our osx shares for a move up. it is, a gut call as much as a chart call.

appreciate your (nosy) input.

don



To: Razorbak who wrote (87646)2/18/2001 2:14:59 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 95453
 
Razor, with my novice at best understanding of TA I'd have to agree with short candidates OII and MDR. But, alas I have a couple of questions.

1) The charts for SLB do look strong but I have to wonder if long is really the way to go. FA on SLB has shown for a long long time that they are IMO overvalued. Compared to pseudo peers HAL, and some less direct comparisons like BHI, BJS, etc. they have always demanded what I consider to be an undeserved premium. I had chalked it up to their semi-tech flavor with the smart card biz. Perhaps what we are seeing here is the tech premium unwind, and TA may be giving false buy signals. I don't know but time will tell.

2) It seems like what you mention is akin to taking an option straddle. If so, then why not just do a pure straddle on SLB? If the TA is correct and it goes up you win, if #1 above is correct and it continues down you win. Trick is just getting enough movement either way.

3) In light of your short candidate charts I plugged in RIG. It looks equally vulnerable to a drop, with most but not all indicators showing the same thing as your choice. I'd love to hear from anybody with a RIG opinion as I currently have a combination straddle / SATB thing going on with them.

Thanks for your input, and cheers to the board for some great posts of late.

Sharp



To: Razorbak who wrote (87646)2/19/2001 5:12:09 PM
From: Heretic  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
>>Heretic: I like your idea of going long SLB and short OIH, but since SLB has such a strong weighting in OIH, perhaps you might do better going with an individual equity on the balancing short side of the trade?<<

Thanks Razorbak -- I hear what you are saying. However, the weighting of SLB in OIH was less than 8% at Friday's close.

So, making the trade with equal dollars (50% long SLB, 50% short OIH) would have the actual net result of being 46% long SLB & 46% short the other 18 companies in OIH. That's close enough for me to prefer using OIH's primary advantage, which, of course, is minimizing the company-specific risk on the short side. That way, all of the company-specific risk is entirely loaded on the long side with SLB.