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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (69485)	2/18/2001 1:43:05 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Wellll .. The value of stocks are only whatever someone is willing to pay for them. Worked on the way up and can also work on the way down .. There is a point of diminished returns with lowering interest rates .. That would be if the confidence/falling market feedback got well under way.

To: American Spirit who wrote (69485)	2/18/2001 2:39:11 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

American, I see many expecting a rate cut before the 21st of March, I am not sure what creates these expectations, right now, I see AG back pedaling fast on his "now growth" comments earlier this month. With tax receipts running in January at 7.5% above last January, with the PPI blipping up, with employment figures not showing major deterioration, where will the impetus come from? The market are not far (the Dow actually is higher) from their levels when AG coined the famous "irrational exuberance" sound byte, the economy, IMHO, is not on the verge of a real recession, and thus there is no urgency, unless a financial accident occurs before the 21st. You will be disappointed if you count on two rate cuts in the next 30 days, IMTO. Zeev

To: American Spirit who wrote (69485)	2/18/2001 8:48:40 PM
From: majaman1978	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

You know it used to be the economy drove the stock market, now it's the reverse. I'm not sure exactly when this happened but this is what now exists. Lately everyone's portfolio or 401K is worth less and less, people are beginning to see this and are pulling in the reigns. I know I have. Just cancelled my PT Cruiser order 2 months ago and bot a used minivan for 3k instead. Basically does the same thing for 1/10 less, less taxes, less insurance, you get the picture. It's a real domino effect. And if AG continues to drop interest rates but the market doesn't respond, where does that get us? This might be a funny way of looking at it but I think the stock market has gotten too big for the economy's good.