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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: freeus who wrote (18994)	2/19/2001 2:46:08 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

Freeus another word of caution. That date is now floating around so much, that if so many people count on something it never happens that way. That said, I somehow doubt the entire world has tuned in to SI. ggg My point is be flexible. We could die hard next week and have capitulation by next Fri. We could rally to 2600 first and make me look like an idiot waiting for 2200. Do not count on anything, but watch for signs of increased selling and panic. here is a post I did on another thread on this subject. ======================================================== The "guess" and that is all it is, is we rally hard about a week or two in front of the FOMC and perhaps for some time after it, depending of course on what Greenspan does. Please bear in mind that if eveyrone believes this, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. The market likes to make idiots out of as many people as possible. Right now, 65% of market newsletters, analysts etc are bullish. This bullish sentiment is near all time high levels. This is yet another reason that it is very unlikely that we have already set a decent bottom already. How high we bounce is based on Tick Trin counts. The Tick is a relative measure of how many stocks are sold on an uptick vs downtick. Trin is based on volumes of advancing/declining issues. As a refresher course -1000 = fear -1200 = near panic -1400 = total panic +1000 = panic buy Here is the link: quote.yahoo.com^vix+^vxn+%5Etic.n+%5Esti.n+%5Esti.o&d=t Now back to the question at hand. What we are looking for is fear, lots of it, panic would be better. Several days in a row of -1000 or better, preferably accompanied by final panic at -1400 or so with a TRIN of 6 or higher (BTW:Naz trin is called STTI on the above link). PS. We got a TRIN of over 10 on Friday and neither Zeev or I had ever seen such an occurance before (Zeev has been a TRIN watcher for years but I am a rookie). TRINs below .65 are bullish, from .66 to 1.0 are more or less neutral, and TRINs above 1.0 are bearish. The 10 we hit was simply off the charts. One might have expected to see this at a bottom, BUT it was simply not accompanied by the right fear levels. Now, why do we want these excessive Ticks and Trins? A good firm bottom will come from panic not from wishy-washy complacancy. Thus, after a rebound off 2250, 1800, 1900 or whatever we rebound from, the more fear and panic that went into the bottom, the stronger and longer the rebound will be. (The market will try and make the bottom sellers look as stupid as possible). After we bottom, a +1000 panic buy would set a bottom that would be very difficult to break. In the meantime, it never hurts to raise cash. Only those in cash, will have cash to buy the big dips and bottoms. M