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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (47574)	2/19/2001 9:59:09 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . Bears Repeating . . . . The key is to be patient, track a select number of quality small and mid cap stocks that are leaders in their field, with reasonable valuations, and buy them during panic selling. The REAL trick is to then have the confidence to hold them through the volatility and hysteria that false prophets like Bill Fleckenstein thrive on. This is where I was shaken out and regret selling IDTI and IRF after having bought them at $30/$31 dollars. I am beginning to think that there are two ways to play a market with the hypervolatility and schizophrenia that this one currently has. One can be a day-trader, sit by the computer all day, and make lightning quick short and long trades, or one can invest for the next 6-12 months, ignore the day-to-day gyrations and have confidence that good stocks bought at low prices will eventually be profitable. The losing course is to invest week-to-week, which (in my hands) results in buying as stocks are nearing a peak and then selling when they are at a near-term bottom. DlphcOracl Great advice, DO. I agree whole-heartedly! Thanks, Rande Is

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (47574)	2/19/2001 1:53:32 PM
From: shadowman	Respond to of 57584

DO, Thanks for the response. I value your opinion. I'm not one who unconditionally endorses Fleckenstein's or anyone else's market prognostications. Nobody has the handle on where the market is going, or any particular stock for that manner. We can all only speculate. I do feel that there are some factors that at least might make some sense, if one is to try at get a feel for what is happening. I think most people will agree that there was a "mania" aspect to the tech stock boom of the latter part of the 90's. The action/reaction historical implications should at least be considered. But what really troubles me is the feeling that many of the quarterly and annual financial statements from a good portion of the technology companies may have been "cooked" to some degree or another. At this point I can only speculate. But I get a very uneasy feeling that given the dynamics of the market the past few years and the intense pressure on most of these companies to "perform", the likelihood of accounting irregularities is unsettling (to me). How serious the "cooking" may be....or whether it will ever prove to be important as far as the individual investor is concerned, I don't know. Whether the possibility that an undue amount of helium has been pumped into these numbers ever comes to light or not....who knows? But it's a factor that has me very cautious about what may lie ahead, as far as trying to get a handle on "fair" valuations. I know that the dot.coms have been universally disparaged for the wild west ...borrow....spend...grow....forget about profit, mentality, but I'm not sure to what degree similarly loose and fiscally irresponsible business and accounting practices may have permeated the whole technology sector? Also what about the fiscal responsibility of the financial institutions that fueled this mania? These are the same brokerage and investment houses, VC's, banks and lending institutions that have participated in the mainstream technology sectors. Has their lack of judgement been isolated or somehow segregated and only manifests itself in certain "more" speculative sectors? I doubt it. The "blinded by the light" aspect of the last few years troubles me. I'm agnostic when it comes to the validity of the information that I, as an investor, have at this time.