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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (63983)	2/18/2001 8:10:48 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 116790

Yes, George, but turns always need a "catalyst", at the last peak, gold production was at a through, right now, we are not yet there. If russwintwer is right about the break even point on a full basis being well under $260, a decline in production might very well ensue. Two three years ago, we discussed the same issue on the thread, and some of the experts (I am not sure if it was Searle, or Truman, maybe even you) when asked about the POG where 20% of the industry would be negative cash flow, quoted a figure in the $205/210 area. Russwinter claims that more than 50% is in this basket under $260. We have had a number of years where we had YOY declines in production and total supply in the last ten years, everytime it was a temporary effect and production increases resumed, I think that you'll need to see a good 10% YOY (maybe much more, since 10% can be easily covered by the CB's) shortfall in total supply before a real bottom can be set. Since we are going into a slower economy, pressures on the demand side might actually abate, compensating for some supply shortfalls, and unless we see more of this production taken off line, I still maintain my less than enthusiastic stand. Zeev