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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (63999)	2/20/2001 8:26:25 AM
From: ForYourEyesOnly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 117110

**OT Hi Searle! Thanks for the quick response and the kind words. "Now that you are a true "pro"," I think that a "Pro" is someone who can earn a stable living from whatever endeavor in which he/she specializes. Unfortunately, I am still 1000 miles from that, and futures trading is just a hobby for me. "I would appreciate hearing your opinion on gold and silver futures. My view is that there is not a great upside in the metals and the best possibility is in the stocks." 1. Trading methods I have found that by observing the intramarket spreads (cost difference between different contract months of the same commodity), I am able to identify a particular situation as falling into one of 3 categories: A. Situation which favors going long B. Situation which favors going short C. I really can't tell Most situations fall into category "C," and I have found it behooves me to stay away from situations that are in this category. Gold and silver on the Tocom fall into this category, and I don't have any positions at present. 2. Forecasting I have also found that while I am able to tell whether I should be long, short, or out at any one moment, that is all. I can't "predict" what will happen in a week, a month, or a year. If you know of someone who claims to be able to predict prices accurately, ask them to predict whether the next day will be up or down (exclude flat days) in the same commodity for 100 days. I would wager that few can significantly exceed a 50% accuracy rate. And so, in conclusion, as an official metals bug, I believe that one day gold and silver will amaze us all. Yet at the same time, I haven't a clue as to the timing. Therefore, I prefer bullion with a few numismatics mixed in, but no mining stocks or leveraged futures at the moment. I have seen too many mining cos go to hell in a handbasket to buy any more...and I find that while I have no problem cutting loses in futures, I am not good at doing so in shares. Wishing you much success, Thomas