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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Shea who wrote (47588)	2/19/2001 12:25:53 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

The market (esp techs) HAVE been weak since October and of course the technicals LOOK week right after a big sell-off day, but I was just listening to this panel of experts who rep a trillion bucks and this was their consensus: Biggest danger a US hard landing DESPITE interest rate cuts and this hard landing spreading world-wide. Japan also in danger of worse times. Also, the re-pricing of tech stocks due to slower earnings has been going on for some time now. How long will it continue? Of course no one knows where the bottom is until we've been there and many prefer to sit on the sidelines but that also means huge amounts of cash and liquidity to power the next rebound in the markets. There are also many casualities esp in the dot-bomb area. Some will or have gone out of business. But the internet survivors are now priced at steep discounts to future value, some priced at or less than cash in hand. So all we can do is pick our targets and see what happens. What will Greenspan do? Big question. He ought to be worrying on and on about this possible hard landing. (It's already hitting pretty hard isn't it?) And therefore he's doing two things, cutting and also reassuring everyone that this is not a real recession. I think he knows the recession is worse than he's describing and that more and more cuts will be necessary to save us from that harder landing. We'll see what happens. In the meantime I'd look for quality techs and telcos to buy when they are obvious oversold bargains and to either play them for short-term bounces or just hold them until the entire market shapes up. That could take a year but might also happen within a month or two. Anyone's guess right now. I know, I'm really not saying anything new.

To: Kevin Shea who wrote (47588)	2/19/2001 10:25:05 PM
From: ~digs	Respond to of 57584

Kevin my view is pretty much the same... a lot of interesting stuff going on but too soon to say with any certainty as to how things will play out. Both the dow and the naz are at pivotal stages... with the naz testing a double bottom and the dow about to resolve that triangle... My opinion is that the DOW is presently the weaker of the two... the weekly has an extended head and shoulders pattern that might finally be coming to an end. A high volume selloff and a convincing close below 10800 (outside that daily triangle) could result in a swift trip to ~9000 IMO. Given the oversold nature of the NAZ right now, I'd say this scenario could potentially result in a sort of 'temporary' resurgence for beaten down tech. (more so if Greenspan were to surprise us with a rate cut again) Maybe just enough bounce to make that higher high near 3000 and suck in that extra bit of money in... before an impending fallout? I don't pretend to know what will happen, but the NAZ weekly chart is still looking ugly... so caution is definitely warranted. I suspect all eyes will be on that CPI report Wednesday... another number like that of the recent PPI and people are going to become increasingly concerned. You can't keep lowering interest rates at the cost of inflation. Much to the dismay of many bulls... it will eventually kill the dollar. And if I understand my economics correctly... the whole fiscal policy process is dependent on the strength of the dollar. Sure you can ease borrowing (like Japan has)... but if the dollar is worth less, what good is that going to do you? JMHO BTW: WMT and HD reporting tomorrow before the bell. Also, a few of the retailers look like great shorts: I like ANF AEOS and SPGLA...