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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (4)	2/19/2001 2:19:54 PM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 23153

Interesting point on IBM. OSX? The oil service stocks are a function of oil prices, and to some degree NG prices. I expect the NG story to stay intact for at least the next 12 months, but the oil story is very questionable right now. As we all know, the market does not tolerate uncertainty and no one can predict when the trend in oil prices will reverse it's current downward slope and enter a new bull market phase. Oil prices are a function of market forces more than OPEC's resolve. OPEC's deemed success in this last oil bull market was more due to reduced excess capacity in many of the OPEC members than a "new and improved" OPEC. Market forces are now on the working against OPEC (and you the investor)in the short term, and I don't want to be invested in oil services stocks betting on the "new and improved" OPEC's resolve. The near term top in the OSX is 140, so upside is very limited. If we were to approach 140 again, the institutions will dump. It is no secret that this sector will someday be selling at substantiality lower prices, the only question is when not if. Longer term, world oil markets are at or near a balance for the first time in over 20 years. Once we reach a true oil shortage in times of more stable economic certainty and the oil price trend reverses to up, there will be plenty of time to find great buys in oil service stocks. In the interim, you could have a correction of more than 50% to the downside. To me, it's not worth the risk vs. reward. I would have 0% of oil stocks in my portfolio today, until the trend in oil prices and the economy reverses. No reason to bet against the trend. Be water by friend, the trend is not your friend!! Jim