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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OWN STOCK who wrote (1969)	2/19/2001 3:52:07 PM
From: ms.smartest.person	Respond to of 74559

IMF cuts US growth forecast to 1.7% Last IMF official forecast in Oct for US growth this year was 3.2%; Fed's estimate issued last week was 2-2.5% [PALERMO, Italy] The International Monetary Fund has slashed its forecast for economic growth in the United States this year to 1.7 per cent, Group of Seven sources said on Saturday. The forecast, which was circulated at a G-7 finance ministers' meeting in Sicily, is well below the IMF's last official forecast of 3.2 per cent published in October and below the Federal Reserve's official estimate of 2 to 2.5 per cent issued last week. The IMF said the world economy will probably expand 3.4 per cent, compared with the September estimate of 4.2 per cent growth. The IMF recently indicated the US economy should slow towards growth of some 2 per cent this year, but was likely to escape a recession. But a forecast of 1.7 per cent for the year suggests the IMF may have doubts about the vigour of a US economic recovery in the second half of 2001. Consensus forecasts of private economists for the US economy hover around 2 per cent. At their meeting, the finance ministers and central bankers from the G-7 said the global economy will avoid recession, even as they called on the US and Japan to do more to ensure expansion. "Global growth will be mainly good this year, though somewhat lower than we expected" when the G-7 ministers met last September in Prague, said Italian Treasury Minister Vincenzo Visco, who hosted the meeting. American demand for products from Asia and Europe has cooled along with the US economy. The comments suggest the G-7 isn't worried that the slowdown, and a shrinking Japanese economy, will pull down the rest of the world. "They're probably right, in the short term at least," said Andrew Milligan, head of strategy at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, which manages £80 billion ($117 billion) in assets. "It's clear that the US will recover in the second half of the year." Currencies, usually a major topic for the G-7, received only a brief mention in the statement released after the meeting in Sicily, suggesting the world's economic chiefs don't see the relative values of the yen, euro, and dollar threatening growth. In their statement, the ministers "reiterated our view that exchange rates among major currencies should reflect economic fundamentals." They pledged to "continue to monitor developments closely and to cooperate in exchange markets as appropriate," language almost identical to that of past G-7 communiques. Although growth in the US has slowed, the ministers and central bankers offered an upbeat assessment of prospects for the world's largest economy. "We agreed that the fundamentals for sustained growth remain in place," Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said. The G-7 called on American policymakers to use monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth, implicitly offering support for lower interest rates and tax cuts in the US. At the same time, the ministers warned neither should be overdone, calling on US officials to preserve "budgetary restraint and price stability." -- Reuters, Bloomberg business-times.asia1.com.sg

To: OWN STOCK who wrote (1969)	2/19/2001 9:32:57 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<As far as top techs are concerned, aside from biotech (for which I plead no special knowledge), most are based on (to a greater or lesser degree) building the worlds largest construction project: the world wide web... > Exactly... and the companies involved in all these types of projects going back to the great wall had very average returns. Got chart on Morrison Knudson? DAK

To: OWN STOCK who wrote (1969)	2/20/2001 7:46:47 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Welcome Own to this house. Useful to have differing views on the same underlying situation. I do still hold some meaningful positions in “techie-ish” shares (AOL, SNE and CHL), a bunch of meaningless residual positions to keep me following the companies and reading the news, and certainly intend to opportunistically trade some as they get kneed again and again. By your Profile, if it is up to date, I see you like the SDLI VTSS JDSU BRCM of this world. You are brave. <<top 100 (mostly techs) are still too high by traditional methods of valuation, I would argue they are in fact greatly undervalued...>> I agree that this is the argument and time will tell, probably rather quickly. <<worlds largest construction project: the world wide web...>> Building the infrastructure and making money from it are two distinct activities, as in the case for canals, railroads and telephone networks. Advise exposure in said infrastructure and service plays, but also diversification, direct hedging and zero leverage. <<little acknowledged indirect spinoff of the web has been dramatic increases in productivity...worldwide…direct costs and overhead are much reduced...I work at home from time to time...>> Agree. I am doing more valuable work in less time than I had ever before, and the stocks of companies responsible deserve, in the aggregate, an increase in value, and I an increase in standard of living. <<Not to be forgotten is the increase in personal liberty (although one would argue this is a reason for some govs to fear it>> Agree. I believe the net, together with borderless commerce, will ultimately force all governments to be more transparent, accountable, and rely on a value-added taxation system. <<Therefore, I would argue the "bloom" the tech sector was blessed with was a fair recognition of the increase in world economic value it was creating. It had reasonable value received for substantial value created.>> The bloom may have been a combination of recognizing the increase of economic value due to technology adoption and an over-recognized due to money creation. Historically, without exception, indigestible money creation has always accompanied new and truly disruptive technology adoption. << Greenspans increase in the rate to limit the US tech sector>> Greenspan increased rate to correct for the unforeseen increase in liquidity forced by the Russian and Asian crisis, as well as to limit the enthusiasm of stock punters. <<his subsequent failure to "floor it" following his (even he recognizes it) mistake is going to leave him looking like the biggest monkey-head in history>> Agree, but for different reasons. He looks like a monkey for not staying the course so as to deflate an unsustainable and unwise bubble. << you have to consider indirect economic benefits too, because the "books, formulas, and theories" are only a crude model of reality>> Agree. <<The mental capacity to see beyond the "books" is called vision>> Agree. And so folks should stop reading Business 2.0 and The Industry Standard, or if they must as I do, then at least read “Devil takes the Hindmost” as well. The mental capacity to see beyond books, and beyond vision is called caution. Chugs, Jay

To: OWN STOCK who wrote (1969)	2/20/2001 10:24:00 AM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay: While it is true the values in the top 100 (mostly techs) are still too high by traditional methods of valuation, I would argue they are in fact greatly undervalued... As far as top techs are concerned, aside from biotech (for which I plead no special knowledge), most are based on (to a greater or lesser degree) building the worlds largest construction project: the world wide web... Over 120 years ago railroads were laid all over the country. These railroads changed the entire face of the economy like no other invention in US history. It allowed corporate consolidation and productive gains that make the internet look like a joke. Where are railroad stocks now?