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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (64046)	2/19/2001 7:04:15 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116947

Russ: If gold liquidity has dried up why are lease rates still so depressed?

To: russwinter who wrote (64046)	2/19/2001 8:21:05 PM
From: PAUL ROBERTSON	Respond to of 116947

russ, you are dead on. Liquidity is drying up quickly. If lease rates were to stay low your conclusion would be incorrect but they are slowly rising and have even inverted a little bit. The squeeze is definately on those that must continue to supply the physical. Sooner or later a bullion bank will be asked to return the physical. This could be caused by a simple S&P bank downgrade.The run will then be on. Problem is that it takes progressively less gold to move the markets around. Sooner or later a wall will be hit. It is, i believe, no longer a fundamental game but one of technicalities. All fixed and moving cycles of every degree bottom before the first half of this year, so the wait will not be much longer. My only fear is that the sinking USA will do all in its power to shut gold out. This means announcing the sale of USA and or IMF stockpiles. However, with building African pressure against IMF sales and possible collapse of the dollar on the announcement of USA gold stock sales, the windows are slowly being shut tight. i believe we are going to see well over $400 gold before year end. Paul P.S. i am not certain but i believe the spec short and commercial long positions are, as a percentage of OI, record positions. It would seem that Frank Veneroso has his figures correct after all and that short gold positions continue to mount.

To: russwinter who wrote (64046)	2/19/2001 8:49:15 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 116947

If these high profile London transfers don't tell you what business is being conducted in physical gold, then where is it being conducted? The point you seem to be dodging is that there is little business. Over the last seven months it has consistently run about half the levels of two years ago, and I absolutely submit it is an key indicator of physical gold available, You either failed to understand what I stated or you don't want to admit the obvious. Why does a low and declining level of turnover indicate a withdrawal of supply? It doesn't. It indicates a lack of demand. and that liquidity has dried up. The CBs are stuck with the stuff. They have this commodity which is effectively worthless because it doesn't create future value, but it does cost money to deal with. So they sell futures against it one way or the other. Seems to me that it is critical that they do this just like with any other holder of a commodity. To claim the market is illiquid ignores the market's condition which isn't indicated by what is reported by LBMA. I think I have the dots more than adequately connected here, and a high proportion of gold being sold today is naked short selling out of thin air. No, you haven't. You may be right, but not for the reasons you've given.