Gst, I think the people in the mid-west don't give a fuck about Billy or the rest of us. I think they have more important things on their minds.
>COLUMBUS, Ind. -- In places such as Skooter's Family Restaurant, amid the smell of cigarette smoke and bottomless cups of coffee, thoughts of an economic slowdown churn like an empty stomach.
Factory workers belly up to the counter for casual conversation, but in the back of many minds, from this diner to kitchen tables to gas pumps and grocery store aisles across the Midwest, there's concern. Concern that a job may be gone tomorrow. Concern that the good times may be winding down.
Just up the road from Skooter's, good-paying factory jobs are being cut at Cummins and ArvinMeritor. The layoffs haven't put much strain on the community yet, but it's enough to slow home sales, make smokeshop customers buy a handful of cigars instead of a box, push couples to forgo their Friday night dinners out.
``Everybody's worried,'' said Dave Skinner, who has worked on engine blocks at Cummins for 40 years. ``People that have been on the job for 30 years are worried.''
And with good reason. After years of booming economic times, sales of automobiles and other durable goods are falling, and the parts makers in the so-called Rust Belt region of the Midwest are seeing business drop.
When the economy hits a bump, manufacturing states are the first to get bounced. When budgets get tight, consumers start to pass on the durable goods that are this region's bread and butter.
``You don't have to buy a new refrigerator, you don't have to buy a new washing machine, you don't have to buy a new car,'' said Morton Marcus, an economist at Indiana University. ``You can postpone these things.''
Over the past five months, layoff announcements at manufacturing plants have popped up across Indiana and surrounding states: Dana cut about 1,000 jobs in Fort Wayne. Similar numbers were lost at Outboard Marine in Waukegan, Ill., and at different factories in Cadillac, Mich. In Ohio, more than 20,000 workers have been laid off since Jan. 1, 2000.
Marcus contends that one of the key elements to the current economic slowdown, particularly in the Midwest, is the skyrocketing natural gas bills people are facing during a bitterly cold winter.
``That's the thing that's really eating it up for consumers here in the Midwest,'' he said. ``You've got to pay that gas bill before you can think about taking on new payments for a car.''
In Columbus, fuel costs in general, coupled with the threat of layoffs, have forced Carol Petro's family to tighten its belt. As she rolled a rattling shopping cart from a LoBill grocery store to her car, Petro explained that her husband has been with Cummins for nearly 28 years. He needs 30 years of service to retire with company benefits.
``And he's worried about not making it,'' she said.
The tan plastic grocery bags she loaded into her trunk held staples: potatoes, pasta, tomato sauce. Absent are the cookies, candy and other assorted junk food. ``Treats,'' she calls them. To be cautious, the family has cut back on groceries and dinners out, and they try to drive less to save money on gas.
``It's real scary,'' Petro said. ``It's real scary when you don't know what's going to happen.''
In this south-central Indiana city of 37,000, called the Athens of the Prairie for its historic buildings and unique architecture, Cummins has always been a rock. There was a time when working at Cummins was a status symbol, and, though Columbus now has numerous manufacturing plants, the diesel-engine maker remains one of the best paying at an average of $17 to $20 an hour.
``Every time Cummins sneezes, Columbus catches a cold,'' said M.E. ``Shorty'' Prather, owner of Shorty's restaurant, located a stone's throw from the plant. ``The whole economy of Columbus is based on the wages at Cummins.''
Making it worse is the fact that the industry is coming off such a long stretch of prosperous times.
``It's been a good run,'' said Joe Magliochetti, chairman of auto-parts supplier Dana Corp. in Toledo, Ohio. ``I think this has been an unprecedented seven- or eight-year cycle.''
But that cycle has wound down, and Dana has had to lay off about 10,000 of its 75,000 employees and close 11 facilities worldwide.
``The fact of the matter is if you're servicing a cyclical customer, you end up being part of that cycle,'' Magliochetti said.
Many, including Magliochetti, don't believe this downturn will be long lived. But in January, manufacturing activity nationwide fell to its lowest level in 10 years, and companies are continuing to cut workforces to handle an economy that has obviously slowed down.
That leaves the looming question in the minds of mothers, fathers, managers and economists: How bad will things get? |
