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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don England who wrote (12)	2/19/2001 10:00:27 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Don, Good catch. Jim

To: Don England who wrote (12)	2/20/2001 12:16:52 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

I did mean Archer-Daniels. The stock has been in rebound mode for a few months: siliconinvestor.com

To: Don England who wrote (12)	2/21/2001 12:13:25 AM
From: Don England	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

did i really say i missed iso and slider already? gagging and dragging - just went thru today's messages over on drilling. i completely abandoned threads on yahoo for less reason. thanks k.b. you may have offered sanctuary to many. following article is on capex, mainly. very interesting stuff. i recall someone, fleck? or a tsc writer?, saying that the chip fabs would be the tells on the comeback, amat, etc. the next para., from the posted link, indicates that would not be the case as over-capacity is a far more serious problem than inventory overhang. any thots? i must confess to being a tech-idiot - i already confessed to being an oil-idiot over on the drilling thread... ********** washingtonpost.com (snips only follow) But a growing number of economic analysts have begun to warn that the economy has more problems than a short-term inventory buildup, that the bottom has not yet been reached and that any rebound will take some time. "The excess inventory of finished goods building up in warehouses and retail shelves is relatively easy to get rid of -- you slow production, lower the price and in six months it's gone," said John Makin, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute. "But the excess here is much deeper than that -- it's all that equipment that was bought when the stock market was booming and capital was cheap. That kind of an overhang is much more difficult to work off." (another snip) It is difficult to calculate exactly how much overcapacity there is in the telecommunications industry, but one indicator is the wholesale spot price of bandwidth, as it is called in the industry -- the price businesses pay to transmit a unit of voice or data across a mile of fiber -- which has fallen 20 percent since December. Susan Kalla, an industry analyst with BlueStone Capital Partners, said the wholesale spot price of bandwidth was likely to fall 50 percent by the end of 2001. i am presently fairly p.o.'ed as i am down 2%, and you take a few thousand from me, at my recent top, and i get cranky! eating s--t (family thread? i've been warned before) here on my nok at 33 and vod at 32, without stops. my osx holdings are actually pretty much flat. don hays, only warp mentions him (is he invited?), believes the nyse will go back thru 11k and hit a high. i am riding with him as he has more damn tells and parameters and such than anyone else, as far as i know. you have to follow something in a mkt. like this. i know many of you are quite astute as traders, timers, etc., but i don't have an inside line to your brain. with don hays i do, and i am with him on this. the osx holds, again today. i cannot buy any argument that it is a bad place to be. s.t. it may fold a little, but l.t., where else can one see rising earnings? i know, this has been argued endlessly. my only comment would be that i think the osx is no longer quite so cyclical and has become more-or-less secular. the techs scare the hell out of me. i didn't make a hot cent in jan. on the dcb, even though hays said "all systems go". i do think the adage that the time to hold tech, or anything else, is when NOBODY wants to. we aren't there yet. as to sliders comment on a sell-off in april. don't forget tax selling. i just did my taxes, and due to unwarranted (or whateverthehell it was) exuberance i traded way too much outside my iras and in a cash acct. and now have to come up with $30k - does that hurt? like a cowboy with hemorrhoids! don p.s. (for those who don't know me you will rarely get a message without a p.s.) anectdotally: i drove 200 miles today to spend 500$ at h.d. lines weren't as long as is usual in the middle of the day. but, by god, infrastructure improvements rule! (wife really wanted that new one-piece toilet, and i have to admit - family thread or no, that's a bottom i call as often as i am able; 57 and beginning to gasp - must be the altitude- in the high lonesome)