To: Dave who wrote (9979 ) 2/21/2001 3:33:22 AM From: jack bittner Read Replies (1) | Respond to as i've written, i think we have slowdowns because mass psychology changes - for reasons no one may ever know - sunspots? whatever. before high technology enabled execs to see quickly what's happening, sales would dry up, inventory would pile up, and then the slowdown would lengthen because they'd have all this stuff to sell for whatever price they could get. i think this time the execs had quick notice that sales had slowed, and everybody cut back production real quick. so we have this slowdown without inventory piled up. thus we have a speedier, almost sudden DROP. but, without the excess inventory, we'll come out in less time than formerly. no, if we'd had slower, clumsier reaction we'd have had less notice of what was going on, so production would've stayed high, but inventory would've been piling up unnoticed. then, when it was realized, we'd have the drop plus the excess inventory. this is all a matter of degree. i think we'll come out sooner than we would've without all the data our ceo's have, but that doesn't mean we'll get better tomorrow. no one can know how long a worldwide psychological malaise will last. but without the inventory pile-up, it will - i think - not be a severe recession. go back to 1990, all the experts (same bunch) were saying Greenspan can't "push on a string", and that lowering rates won't work. watch out especially for the bunch from Morgan Stanley, they've predicted 10 of the last zero recessions. how do they survive always being wrongly bearish? they are either No. 1 or No. 2 in program trading - the other is GS - and they thrive on volatility.
