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To: Yaacov who wrote (127895)	2/20/2001 11:54:32 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Yaacov - re: "It now appears that US economy is finally in recession! The only way out is swift resolution by the Federal Reserve to further lower the rates. After all they screwed-up a good thing and it seems that they are not moving fast enough to put the things right! " The Fed brought the economy to a halt - with 5 or 6 rate hikes while oil prices were simultaneously skyrocketing (which would have slowed the economy had the Fed done nothing). However, the severity of the technology recession - in my estimate - will not be quickly solved via the Fed reversing rate cuts. It looks like we're down for the count (an old boxing expression) - and it may take a painfully long time for any recovery to occur. Re: "Mr. Greenspan kept congratulating himself that US economy has averted a Recession!!! " Yeah - we got a DEPRESSION instead. Paul

To: Yaacov who wrote (127895)	2/21/2001 12:00:30 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

RE:"It now appears that US economy is finally in recession!" Technically not... Jim

To: Yaacov who wrote (127895)	2/21/2001 8:41:41 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Yaacov, Hope you are doing well. During the past weekend, I had extensively reviewed covered calls and protective puts. I felt it was imperative to gain even better insight into these investment instruments (and I wish I would have done this earlier) - this market is hurting and I believe it will hurt us for some time exceeding several quarters. After a review of the cost of protective puts during the weekend and how to pay for them through the use of premiums generated through covered calls, slightly below-the-money protective puts were placed on half of the non-retirement stocks in my portfolio yesterday morning, and this was done through profits from half of the premium generated by writing covered calls (on same underlying stocks), above the money through April-01. This action indicates I believe: a) things may get worse before they get better b) stocks could either stay flat or decline c) any short-term rally could be artificial, not backed by earnings Obviously, I'm not very bullish at this moment, neither is Paul it appears. A sure sign that this is finally the bottom? Probably not, because unlike the last stretch of the previous bull run, where investor mood indicated the run of the market, this time around corporate earnings will determine when we head back up. Folks talk as if 1997 was a big deal (because of the semiconductor recession), however, that wasn't as bad as the early 90's, because at least in 1997 a person could definitely see other computer subsectors booming (outside of semiconductor subsector), which made it apparent the semiconductor bust of 1997 was sort of unique to semiconductors and that eventually these other computer subsectors would lift the semiconductor boat. But this time around, it's not quite like that: everything, with few exceptions, seems to be getting snagged, and it's not just the semiconductor subsector this time like in 1997, and it's not just the high-tech sector, but it appears to be the entire economy. And this negativity, along with some local economic indicators (number of people layed off; sudden jump in housing inventory; increase in energy prices), gives one the impression that this may get as nasty as the early 90's recession, and I don't mean the speed bump in 1994, but 1990. But it doesn't look as bad as the mid-80's recession, when there were severe fundamental flaws in the structure of US businesses. Back then, the auto industry nearly collapsed this country and had everyone thinking Japan's competitive businesses were going to be the undoing of the USA. Recovery out of this particular recession, seems to be more dependent upon the consumers' confidence, than fixing fundamental flaws in USA businesses. I think it is also dependent upon keeping inflation under control in the face of recent energy increases and low unemployment. I seem to recall my Dad saying, the early 70's had a very low unemployment rate that made it difficult to starve off the initial stages of spiraling inflation that ensued due to rising energy costs just after an economic boom of late 60's that created a tight labor pool. Boy, doesn't that sound like today? I believe staflation could be a concern. What do you recommend in that type of economy? How are you doing? Take care, Amy J