Hi Raymond,
FWIW, I'm not a tech expert, nor a QCOM guru..... I have followed QCOM closely & have learned from others with far more knowledge & expertise than I have...... factor that into my VHO........
I remember Seybold's Outlook article. He made a number of logical points in it. However, he didn't address capacity issues. QCOM's upgrade to 2.5, then 3G will increase capacity dramatically over the previous generation. Capacity is critical in wireless as there is only so much spectrum to fit voice & data in. Efficient use of scarce spectrum is extremely critical.
As it currently stands now, much of Europe is reaching capacity limits with GSM. Japan is having some capacity problems too. Some US cities are reaching capacity limits now...... And China's urban areas (now using mostly GSM) are so densely populated that without CDMA installed they will reach capacity limits long before the % of wireless penetration reaches critical mass (GSM is not very efficient WRT spectrum ET AL).
Wireless users expect their calls to go through the first time & do not expect to have the call dropped with any frequency. We have grown accustom to expecting to be able to communicate & access data even when we are mobile. In business it is an absolute must if you wish to be competitive. As the number of users increases & usage per customer increases, 2G wireless systems will be strained to their limits..... system overloading will occur, calls dropped, others won't be able to access it at all..... occasionally systems will overload & crash. If these systems are not upgraded to handle the load, capacity issues will take care of themselves as people/businesses cancel their wireless service & go where they will get reliable, quality service. Accessing data wirelessly will only strain spectrum capacity further.
CDMA2000 1x (2.5G) & CDMA2000 1xEV will dramatically increase the voice & data capacity of the same spectrum. CDMA's superior voice/data capacity, soft hand off & other patented features make it clearly superior to GSM, TDMA & analog. The only way wireless data can be successful is if there is sufficient capacity to serve a large number of users while allowing an ever increasing volume of voice traffic to flow uninterrupted.
IMO, eventually even 2.5G will be at it's capacity limits. Like wireless phone access, those accessing wireless data will grow & become accustomed to uninterrupted access. Evolving to 3G will not only allow the additional capacity to maintain a fully functioning system, it will allow even higher peak data rates to an ever growing number of end users.
I look at it this way. Five years ago, I never imagined how dramatically the internet would affect my life. I am increasingly dependent on it. I feel tethered to it now though. If I am mobile my ability to access the net is severely restricted. I will be among the first adopters of a wireless modem if it genuinely is cost competitive with cable/dsl access. Since I was a late bloomer WRT the net (although I had early access to the net as part of my job - it wasn't until browsers & portals made the net more efficient that I really used it)..... I suspect that those who predict further massive growth of the net will not disappoint. Like most other technologies have in the past, the net & devices to access data improved dramatically over time & their markets followed suit. The net is no where near it's zenith IMO. That tells me that the growth potential for wireless access has only begun to take off. I doubt I could speculate on what wireless access solutions will become available, just as I never imagined how the net would become today......
I believe I will not be alone in crowding the airwaves when 2.5G comes & I'll do it..... anywhere..... anytime..... & potentially with superior access than those tethered to a land line. This is a no brainer to me.
Per QCOM, their CDMA solutions are cost & spectrum efficient, it allows their service providers to offer cost competitive wireless access to a superior system. Only time will tell, but me thinks that if the systems deliver as advertised, there will be a need to squeeze limited spectrum to it's limits as there will be increasing demand for mobile access to voice/data communications...... 2.5G, then 3G should allow this IMO.
If not, then it will die on the vine..... like the FO sector seems to be <gg>.... well that's what the bears case seems to be :-| FWIW, I'm not buying into that theory. The world is not built out nor reached it's nadir in FO..... or wireless.
.....<<"screen acreage is so miniscule, user interface, i.e. keyboard sucks and without full HTML rather than cHTML or WAP, there's little compelling content on the data side. ">>
That is what is available today. Like PC's, TV's VCR's, CD/DVD players, etc., as time went by, vast improvements to the technology occurred. Watch to see what the wireless industry does. Soon, those who wish can use a wireless modem designed for their laptop/notebook PC. CDMA2000 1x (should be available by late 2001/early 2002) will initially allow 64kps & build to 153kps, then 300+kps. Even at peak 64kps, it will be consistently faster access than over a standard landline modem..... plus your wireless access will be available anywhere 1x operates (eventually nationwide). For those who wish complete access to the net & complete mobility will find wireless modems quite desirable IMO...... and if it is priced competitively, there will be significant demand for a potentially superior service.
Wireless PDA's will soon be available that will have much larger screens than on any current wireless phone. They will have micro browsers & sufficient memory to allow limited web surfing, e-mail access, & portfolio monitoring as well as voice call capability. These will be feature packed with emphasis on screen size using state of the art components. Keyboard systems are superior to handheld systems. Some will allow writing recognition...... Eventually they will be manipulated via voice recognition or Voice User Interface (VUI). Solutions & improvements will be there like any other emerging technology.
Wireless phones will also follow suit (better quality/size screens - better data access solutions - VUI, etc.), but the emphasis on handsets will be on size...... eventually voice recognition will allow audio access (VUI) to info to supplement the info on the soon to be improved screen access (GUI). Limited but vastly improved data access, yes..... maximum portability too. FWIW, folks will likely begin to own more than one wireless device. A handheld for times when limited data access is needed, but mobile voice communications access is still desired...... & another wireless device for times when full mobile data access is desired..... IMO, it will be all on one account too.
Then there is telmatics. Millions of vehicles will have wireless voice/data access in a VUI dominant system (though some systems will have a PC port or built in screen/keyboard - only accessible when the car is not moving).
I just don't buy the argument that today's limited wireless data technology will constrain growth in wireless data access. As I've noted above, there will be an ever increasing number of improvements & solutions that will untether us from our desks & land lines..... at very competitive costs IMO.
RE: the China Syndrome article. I don't recall all the specifics, but here is my take FWIW. As discussed above, capacity will be a huge issue for China's urban centers which covers a vast majority of their potential wireless market. GSM is too inefficient..... as discussed above, CDMA can resolve the capacity issues & 2.5G CDMA is here & works today. China can opt to upgrade to GPRS/EDGE, then WCDMA which could eventually solve capacity issues (only when they get to WCDMA IMVHO). Unfortunately GPRS & EDGE have turned out to be very problematic, replete with delays & lowered expectations about their actual capabilities, plus neither GPRS nor EDGE will solve capacity issues. WCDMA, per QCOM, is not going to be widely available for years & China is facing capacity issues rapidly. CDMA2000 1x is here, now & it works in the real world.
China is not a rich nation. CDMA can be very cost competitive with GSM as discussed above. Also, China wants to manufacture a significant portion of their own infrastructure & handsets internally. The GSM cabal thwarted that when GSM was introduced into China. Even now, extremely high IPR costs for GSM makes it hard for China to compete against the GSM cabal.
OTOH, QCOM doesn't care who manufactures CDMA tech..... as long as they license it & pay a fair royalty (1/2 to 1/3 the rate of GSM)...... in fact, QCOM has worked hard with vendors in China to assist them in getting up to speed on CDMA technology..... allowing China to have a real chance to become a dominant force in internal/exporting CDMA manufacturing capability.
Regardless of the FUD in 'The China Syndrom' article..... unless the GSM cabal can overcome the observations I've made...... I'm going to be optimistic about China & a massive build out of CDMA, CDMA2000 1x, then CDMA2000 1x EV.
Even if China makes GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA their #1 system, QCOM will still receive royalties when WCDMA is implemented..... but that will not be good for QCOM near term.
Only time will tell. I can only speculate what the future holds. For now, I see tremendous opportunity for growth in wireless, particularly for CDMA. Perhaps the skeptics are right & we will quit moving forward, quit innovating & wireless markets will wither on the vine...... Perhaps not.
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