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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Telemarker who wrote (24)	2/20/2001 5:15:49 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Telemarker, Slowly, slowly we are assembling some wisdom over here, under the general radar. Very nice to see you here on "Cheers." I just scrolled through some postings on the other thread; too much bandwidth wasted there for me. I'd have to say I believe in the tech story, long term, because I believe in the power of information; it is my opinion that information must be stored, and is nothing if not shared, and next to nothing without speed. Many of these companies outran themselves but I can't see a future where we aren't using more computers, newer computers, more bandwidth, more memory and storage. Tech will be a great buy as a value play (is that Naz 2100, 1800 or 1650?) and a great ride up through "growth" multiples to nosebleed land. All it will take is some real capitulation and some real liquidity--the market will be read with a short memory. (Btw, wasn't it ironic that a tech purchase sank SLB's stock on Friday? How the worm turns.) Similarly I can't see a future where we are not using fossil fuels. I think our multi-year boom in oils is on-going but it's not going to be anything but a bumpy ride along the way and I doubt we'll see triple digit annual gains in any of the stocks I'm holding/looking at. I do think that RIG at 80 and NBR at 90 will be clear signals to leave the fairgrounds. I can't understand the gold argument except as a fear argument, someone else will have to make their fortune in gold, with all my good wishes, of course. Kb

To: Telemarker who wrote (24)	2/20/2001 5:59:22 PM
From: Wowzer	Respond to of 23153

Kodiak, thanks for the invite, looks like we have some great posters here. Hope I am still invited even though I am not a republican or....god forbid...even from Texas. Did live there for a couple of years though if that counts...(ggg). Anyway here is my take on tech: I am staying away right now other then some day trades but I am out by the end of the day or next morning win lose or draw. I have some very reliable contacts in a large circuit board maker who supplies to the likes of NT, CSCO, CPQ, HWP, NOK etc etc. And orders are way down and continue to decline. Problem is they only have a month or so lead time so it can turn around on a dime. But until I get confirmation that orders are picking up, no reason for me to buy. Especially since most of these "techs" still have PE and Price/Sales in the stratosphere when compared to more normal times. However, when I do get confirmation orders are picking up that is when I will start buying. On natural gas and oil don't really know where I stand. If economy continue to slows down or recession, declining demand = drop in prices. However NG looks good with all the new NG power plants scheduled to be built, summer coming and I don't see a ton of supply coming. So I own OXY in bulk and little TMR and ROYL, TXCO for possible runs and 50% cash. My favorite stock for the next 6 months though is PIXR. This is my third time playing for the upcoming release of its movie. This time it is "Monsters". So far PIXR is batting a 1000 (three times at bat with Toy Story 1 & 2 and Bugs Life. However, that is all this company has and combine that with its low float (Steve Jobs owns almost all of it) it is very volatile and tends to run until the day before the movie is released then promptly tanks. PIXR right now is near its lows not seen since 1998 discounting the last few months. I almost see this one as a no brainier, if the NAZ tanks it might drag it down but the hype on "Monsters" alone should keep it going. Especially, starting this summer when we start seeing the previews in the theaters. And if the NAZ takes off? So much the better, unless "Monsters" is a real dud and the previews suck (highly doubtful given their track record). IMO this one should see at least 40 if not 50 prior to November 2 (opening day). Right now have a 1/3 position and am praying for it to drop below 30 one more time. Just started buying in the 32's.