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To: JRI who wrote (10514)	2/20/2001 6:32:42 PM
From: leum	Respond to of 13572

Panic, only and if, Naz 2250 range or previous presupposed bottom is broken (I think March 5 week will tell ST tale on 50 day cycle). The Trin and p/c ratio, correct me if I am wrong, are laggards as indicators. I cannot see how the fed can stop this correction, only delay. I've been gorilla trading on dips then out and have been in cash for so looong I am trying to remember what it is like to be long. Dave Leum

To: JRI who wrote (10514)	2/20/2001 6:34:11 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

JRI, Are you at all familiar with the FRB's Plunge Protection Team? This mythical, and most likely real IMO, group is in charge of stymieing fear driven elevator shaft trading in the market. For instance, it appears that they intervened the afternoon of 4/17/00 by placing huge amounts of liquidity into the index futures markets. Can you confirm this? Reason I bring this up is that I don't think the Chairman is going to allow the NAZ to cross the tape below about 2150, just to pick a number out of a hat. Reason I'm using that figure is because of the psychological damage that will be done to the market should we cross 2000. Greenspan is well aware of the nervousness of the market and of the consumer. He can't afford to let the mood get any worse than what it is now. Not without risking a very severe recession similar to the '90-1 episode. And should he allow that, it will forever sully his reputation. Which is probably more important to him than a couple of million on the unemployment lines. So, I can't agree that we will see 1900. In the past, ever since 1998, I've always had a trigger point whenever the market was trading toward a bottom and the market always reversed about 10-15% above what I would have considered a "natural" bottom. So, now I simply have raised my target to accomodate what appears to be divine intervention in the flow of the market. Comments welcomed! BTW, Put:Call = .70, VIX = 27.50 at the close. We aren't even close to panic levels. Ciao

To: JRI who wrote (10514)	2/20/2001 7:18:07 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 13572

Complements of Greenspeak... cbs.marketwatch.com Layoffs add up Since the start of December, employers have announced almost 300,000 job cuts amid a slowing economy. The manufacturing sector alone accounts for nearly two-thirds of the cuts. Below is a partial list. Latest layoff news 2/15 Nortel ups its toll to 10,000 2/15 Dell to let 1,700 go 2/15 Alltel warns, lays off 1,000 2/14 Goodyear cuts 7,000 jobs Source: Challenger, Gray, Christmas TECHNOLOGY LAYOFFS WorldCom 11,550 Nortel 10,000 Unisys 5,000 Standard Register 2,400 Dell Computer 1,700 Xerox1 800 Engage 550 Digital Broadband Comm. 450 ADC Telecomm. 400 Corel 320 Cambridge Tech. Partners 280 Computer Sciences Corp. 237 General DataComm 200 Convergent Communications 150 Startec Global Comm. 140 Lucent 10,000 Motorola 9,300 Gateway 3,000 Hewlett-Packard 1,700 Alltel 1,000 JDS Uniphase 700 Sony 500 Rhythms NetConnections 450 Juno 325 AT&T Broadband 300 Vitts Networks 270 Perot Systems 200 Neon Software 150 Network Commerce 145 F5 Networks 100 1 5,200 announced last fall INTERNET LAYOFFS Amazon.com 1,300 Etoys 700 Barnesandnoble.com 350 Pets.com2 320 ExciteAtHome 250 AltaVista 200 MVP.com3 166 Drugstore.com 125 Netpliance 93 MarchFirst 1,000 GO.com 400 Ameritrade 330 AllAdvantage.com 250 LetsBuyIt.com 200 LookSmart 172 ECal 140 HomeGrocer.com 100 2 Majority of staff, shutting down 3 Total, shutting down MANUFACTURING LAYOFFS General Electric4 75,000 DaimlerChrysler 26,000 Boeing 8,000 Whirlpool 6,000 Keane 1,000 Honeywell4 50,000 GM 11,100 Sara Lee 7,000 Gillette 2,700 4 Over next 2 years, according to Business Week and other sources; 50,000 of these are from Honeywell. The company disputes the reports. FINANCE LAYOFFS JP Morgan 5,000 PricewaterhouseCoopers 400 Bank of America 100 Aetna 5,000 Prudential Securities 160 MEDIA LAYOFFS AOL Time Warner 2,400 CNN 400 NBCi 150 CNET 190 Entertaindom 200 Quokka 90 RETAIL LAYOFFS Montgomery Ward 28,000 Sears 2,400 Crown Books 450 JC Penney 5,565 Service Merchandise 1,750