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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (11381)	2/20/2001 5:46:51 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Hi Zeev: Just another informed viewpoint. I wasn't around for the 1400 and I'm wondering if it was a misquote. Maybe the 4 should have been a 9 or the 1 a 2. Anyway none of us are 100% accurate except for mr. market. Your reads have been very good this past year. From my perspective I'm just wondering what the layoff announcements and the drop in equity values will do to consumer sentiment. I also think the government is going to find it has a lot less surplus this year than it anticipated. If I'm right this won't be released till around 4 to 6 weeks after april 15 and could be later if the irs systems are really bad. Remember the government could never tell why the surplus was increasing over its projections. I believe the conclusion was we had the significant increase in taxable wages due to option exercising. Factor this with a drop in corporate earnings for this year (corp's are good @ lowering the estimated payments vs. individuals paying based upon last year). Bush's tax plan was based upon a 5 to 6 billion surplus and 1.6 of the 5 is only a 32% cut which still left 68% for debt reduction (I actually think we should pay this down more than you) and additional spending (or as they say in DC investment) programs. If the 1.6 (although the street probably figures @ best $1.2 is passed) but the current surplus drops by 20+% the markets can have an issue. I'm rambling but there are many areas of manufacturing (not just tech) hurting right now. The refinancing boom will only go so far. It may only be an inventory issue but sentiment seems to be falling off a cliff (strange with employment under 5%). If sentiment falls too much we have the recession this year versus next. Just some thoughts Tim