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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (133215)	2/20/2001 5:23:14 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 1571186

Ted, re: Overcapacity There is way overbuilding in the leading edge silicon at 0.15 and 0.13. Both UMC and TSMC have multiple 12" fabs coming online in next 12-18 months. Their fab investments have been amazing. In terms of shippable wafers/yr the growth over past few years has been > 50% per year. The shit really hits the fan when you switch from under to over capacity. Just look at dram vendors to analyze this. But this is being repeated everywhere. This is not just a 1Q "inventory correction" issue. regards, Kash

To: tejek who wrote (133215)	2/20/2001 7:48:54 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Respond to of 1571186

Ted, re: <Not arguing with you but rather this is the first time I had her the complaint of overbuilding.> If this is the first time you've heard it it's because you've not been listening. It is an intrinsic part of the scenario I've been preaching. Let me put it succinctly -- the world has the capacity to build more computers, cars, windows, houses, telephones, pagers, video games, etc. than all the people who have any capacity to buy want. All those who have capacity to buy are invested in the stock market. And they are convinced that the United States Stock Market(USSM) will go up, year after year 10%, on average(wgu,yay10%oa). And they think they can borrow from DOPES who don't know the USSM wgu,yay10%oa for 6% and get rich. And it has not the will to use that capacity to end/decrease starvation/disease -- and if it did, the effect would be exactly what was not wanted. We're at a damn precarious cusp, IMO. tgptndr