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Technology Stocks : Alcatel (ALA) and France -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry pollock who wrote (3043)	2/20/2001 7:30:16 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3891

Larry, when US started to slow it was 8 months ago. Slowdown started when % in US was 6.5% and lasted until January. Europe have 4.75% since mid year, and as you could see they had fastest growth in December. With only 13% good imported/exported from/to US, lower taxes this year, warm winter(energy cost), high consumer confidence it will take at least 6 month to slow Europe from 3.5 to 3% growth as forecasted by ECB. UK for example has already cut % rate last week,despite good growth. Bankers in Europe are doing this time much better job then AG. CSCO CEO statement was way overblown( Europe down in 4 month) May be slightly.In fact ECB see drop from 3.5 to 3%. If there is any issue in Europe, ECB, after seen US case, would have lower % last week. They have 4.75%!!!. US still have 5.5%. They also do not have big inventory correction in manufacturing, what is the real issue in US.

To: larry pollock who wrote (3043)	2/21/2001 12:14:38 AM
From: Michael M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3891

Larry, I don't know you and I don't know Zbyslaw. You both raise interesting issues but, IMO, Zbyslaw's economic world view makes more sense to me. The American Big Boys have been caught with their pants down. LU is a piece of ****. Nortel has been grossly overvalued for a long time. CSCO has been buying new ideas and growth and doing very little on its own. CSCO, in fact, is now squealing like a pig after being found out and wants as much misery for company as its CEO can manage through his whining to the press. Pitiful, really. ALA is kicking butt, dude -- and dropping like a stone. This will not continue much longer. Eventually someone in the journalistic herd will notice that ALA is still a growth stock in a space where a lot of money is going to be spent. Serge has made a conspicuous effort to verify existing forecasts. Unless he has a death wish, he ain't whistling Dixie. I would be shocked -- really shocked -- if ALA did not meet or beat this quarter. AND, on the political side, France will likely be prime to benefit from any disenchantment with American firms in China and other emerging markets. I have agonized over my ALA position the past few days. I've decided this is a good place to be. Good luck to you, whatever you decide. Mike