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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (39538)	2/26/2001 6:57:53 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Mike wrote: I understand your point and I know you understand its limitations, but for those who have only read the revised manual I'm compelled to point out that the list of stocks you're tracking were selected as part of a Gorilla Game that stopped being played very soon after it was begun. Some of the stocks on it (most notably, MANU) wouldn't be on it today if the Game were still being played by the authors. I didn't mean to cause any confusion for those that have not read the original manual. I simply wanted to point out what has happened to the original shares of the 'test portfolio' in September of 1997 that the authors chose (page 318). Obviously, AOL bought Netscape. The link: siliconinvestor.com doesn't exactly lay those games out in proper fashion, but rather simply lists all the equities involved. The proper consolidation would have been carried out at some point in both the SCM space as well as the Security space. Hence, the final portfolio held today would most likely be: i2 - SCM Checkpoint - Security Cisco - Grandfather Intel - Grandfather Microsoft - Grandfather I'm not exactly sure how one would have played the Browser and web server consolidation if at all between Microsoft and Netscape (which turned into AOL shares in a 1 for 1 swap) as the events unfolded between 1997 and 1999. The consolidation at the appropriate time into i2 for the SCM game and Checkpoint for the security would have boosted the number of shares held in both of those securities. I imagine I should do some more historical searching to see exactly when and what price the consolidation phase would have taken place to bring the original test portfolio 'up to date' in terms of how it should have been played through the past 3 1/2 years. However, I didn't follow the companies in security outside of Checkpoint - nor did I follow Netscape. So, I just keep it listed in my Portfolio section at SI "as is" along with many others that I 'track'. Due to the various niche markets that i2 and Manugistics targeted over the past few years, one could debate about the strategy of keeping both as a strategy or consolidating into the larger or the two as the niche markets unfolded. However, if we stretch the time frame out to include the next 5 to 10 years, I would expect to see i2 and Checkpoint's returns to outstrip by quite a wide margin any of the chimps in their respective games from September of 1997. BB