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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (19008)	2/20/2001 10:57:55 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19374

JRI, I'm skeptical of much of what you suggest, but I admit I am not really a Greenspan watcher, so I may not be in much of a position to say anything. It may be that AG watches the $COMPX to some extent, and uses this information in some way. But if so, I think it is a relatively minor contributor. His mandate is to promote economic growth in a controlled, sustained way and to limit inflation at any cost. These two exceedingly important economic forces---growth and inflation---may occur in the setting of Nasdaq uptrends, downtrends, or sideways basing periods, partly because stock prices in the Nasdaq in particular tend to result to an extent from the effects of manipulation, and I think AG is well aware of that. I think he is also well aware of the fact that the Nasdaq will sooner or later align itself with the underlying economic forces and realities, but can and will move counter to these from time to time. So, I strongly doubt that anything he does has as its object to either stimulate or inhibit the stock market per se. Sub-2000 $COMPX is all but assured in my mind, and while I couldn't say what lower limit I might expect, I would not be one bit surprised to see the $COMPX at 1500 by fall of this year. However, I have anticipated a reversal right here followed by a temporary countertrend rally, but at the moment there is little indication that this will take place. The $COMPX right now sits just a hair above critical long term support, which if broken convincingly, all but dooms the prospects for any sustained countertrend rally, and instead makes likely a continued downtrend towards a final bottom somewhere below 2000 IMHO. Along the way today, the important trendline support of 2340 was easily broken, a development I view with very grave concern. Furthermore, today's intraday chart shows enormous technical weakening on every time frame, and there was little fight at several important support points. This is not a good sign at all. askresearch.com A subsequent convincing break of the critical 27 year trendline support---which the $COMPX sits less than two points above right now---would be a technically devastating event IMHO. One thing I think we can hang our hats on: both AG and I will be very, very interested in tomorrow's CPI. If it is inconsistent with increasing inflation, that may well spark a sharp turnaround here. But if it concurs with last Friday's PPI, then I think a hard rain's a' gonna fall. JMVHO, as always..........