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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (11406)	2/21/2001 9:19:46 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Bosco: If you go back and look @ Japan in 1989 and 1990 you will see the economy started to turn about a year after the bubble burst (in the statistics). Ditto the US after the 87 crash. The banks and real estate didn't start taking it on the chin for 9 to 12 months. It actually takes time for the effects to filter through and more time to correct the excess of the boom. The pendulum swings too far each time on the way up and on the way down. Part of the reason why I feel we will eventually break the 2100 area (not now this summer). I still don't think 2100 is fair value if the e is shrinking. Its still a question on whether this is an inventory correction or the start of a recession. Right now I'm just trying to look for what will be the trigger to send us down on the final leg. Maybe energy prices, CA energy crisis, shrinking surplus. Not sure. Good luck Tim