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To: Amy J who wrote (128006)	2/21/2001 12:56:49 PM
From: Wayners	Respond to of 186894

There's a few differences. No Governent deficit spending to pay for Vietnam. Energy prices not up as much as you pointed out. No significant wage inflation today. Today's CPI and PPI up on energy and tobacco. Who cares about tobacco? Stagflation is caused by having a very high natural rate of unemployment. I believe its the level of investment and the resulting productivity received from investment that determines where the natural rate of unemployment is. Investment and corresponding productivity determine where the Philips curve shifts to. In the 1970's there were serious disincentives to investment including higher taxes.

To: Amy J who wrote (128006)	2/22/2001 2:09:45 PM
From: Yaacov	Respond to of 186894

Ann, lots of things have changed since 1973! I don't believe there is stagflation, or inflation. I believe Feds are concerned about recession. I think the will cut the rates and not only 0.50 but they will cut maybe 1% to 1,5% during the 2001. The question is TIMING! They have allowed the NAZ fall below 2300 and if this things becomes unhinged,it will be terrible for investors and the US and the world economy. Now, lets us reason, if AG doesn't know we are in recession, that who should? I think he knows something we don't. Today I read a few articles in some of major of European financial papers. They believe "this is the third hump and the last one!" ggg Let me translate that for you in simple words, they say that this is the 3rd and last time NAZ visits the lows, and from here on we can look up to a recovery! Now I know you have an excelent memory, so pleae remember this and lets discuss it a month down the road! gg Kind regards Yaacov