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To: Road Walker who wrote (128009)	2/21/2001 3:02:53 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John, Most economists are still dismissing the inflation numbers. I heard somewhere that natural gas has come down significantly since last month (rarely buy it myself, once or twice a year for the spa <g>). Oil and gas futures are both down from last month; the drop in gas more substantive. Both will continue to go down some in the next few months if for no other reason, then the winter heating season is coming to an end. I don't know what to think. It's clear that market sentiment is very, very low, usually a good time to go long. But I can't see a catalyst to move the market up, beyond an inter-meeting move on interest rates. There are only two positives that I can see today: the Naz has bounced off its 2290 level three times, and the Dow has not broken its current uptrend [today marks the low point in the uptrend's trading channel]. I guess I'm still trying to formulate an opinion on how bad things are and how long the downturn will last. I think what's bad is the overall psychology of those who invest. In truth the weekly moving average for unemployment has not spiked up inspite of the media's reports of what seems to be widespread layoffs, many companies are still reporting positive earnings, and inflation appears to be high side of benign. What I think is rampant is the fear that we will go into a recession. And since its been 10 years, its like thinking about going to the dentist after a long interlude, you remember the needle to be a half foot long and the drill to have small razor blades attached to it. ;~)) That's my take but what do I know. ted

To: Road Walker who wrote (128009)	2/21/2001 3:17:12 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John, Scratch my last post...the Naz has broken through 2290 and is heading South. ted

To: Road Walker who wrote (128009)	2/23/2001 3:39:19 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi John, RE: "it seems to have given you some level of piece of mind in this market." Not quite peace of mind. A recession would not bother me, but stagflation would - it robs investors. RE: "The experts, including the Fed govenors, don't seem to think it's a problem, and they are usually the first to scream (after GV)." GV is on top of the ball. Where is our thread's stagflation expert? If energy prices remain under control (and it appears they may be, but who knows), I assume the potential for stagflation is very unlikely. RE: "I guess I'm still trying to formulate an opinion on how bad things are and how long the downturn will last." Let's see... Nasdaq was at 252 in Jan 1985, projecting out at 11.5% (Dow's est historical average), yields approximately Nasdaq 1600 in 2001. Of course, over the long-term, I'm expecting INTC to yield better than the Dow. Regards, Amy J