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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (118310)	2/22/2001 1:50:04 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Glenn, this attention to detail is extremely valuable to all of us. My prob has been that since amzn as a stock has not interested me for quite some time, i really haven't benefited personally from your skills in this area. Are there any other companies you study like amzn? And if not, are there any you plan to after the <er> end? <g> Rob, At the present time, there are no other firms that I follow with such detail. The detail here is more of a hobby rather research as an investment. It gives me a break from work at times while I am still at a computer. I did a lot of detail research initially when I shorted the stock. I knew as a fact way back in early 1998 or possibly late 1997 ( I would have to look the date up) that Amazon was not operating properly as a retailer and had zero chance of success. All I learned from that experience is the movement of a stock does not always reflect the fundamentals in a reasonable amount of time. Those years were also a bit of an anomaly in the stock market which contributed a lot to the divergence between fundamentals and stock movements. Eventually fundamentals always win out. My plan for the last year was to do extremely detailed analysis on broadband firms to see if I can make money from that rollout. The slowing in available cash and the consumer's reluctance to pay for broadband presently has delayed this roll out. I currently have following on the fringe only some firms that I believe will benefit. Those are Akamai, Broadcom and a few others. There is not a lot of point in doing a lot of detail until this rollout really takes off again. The reason is the picture of various firms that may benefit could easily change between now and let's say 2002 which is when I now anticipate this to begin. My research so far has about a dozen good firms that would benefit from the follout. I plan to narrow that to about four to six as we start to see who is the better players. I hope to be as detailed with these firms because I plan to make money on the stock movements. My plan is to do the FA and hopeothers help with the TA which is my weakest area. I can tell you right now that my research on these firms will not be as accurate as it was with Amazon. That is due to my experience in retail and no real experience in a high technology firm of any kind. I do have a fair amount of technolgy educational background but that never makes up for experience. I am going to do the best I can and see how much money I can make in that sector. I really did learn a lot at the Bank of America conference and hope I have learned to distiguish the hype from a real business that can make money. That type of education will be required again when the climate changes. The areas of focus will content audio and video delivery, voice over IP and the "last mile" of infrastructure. I almost all areas the last mile has not even been touched. It is clear to me that DSL as we know it and cable access as we know it will not cut it in high population density areas. I believe there is a lot of opporunity to make money on the fringe of the net just as there was when the backbone of the net was rolling out. The backbone is not complete but the firms that will do the best improving it are already known as is the technology that will be used to increase bandwidth in the backbone. This is not so at the fringe. I am not going to focus too much of software firms or B2B firms due to my total lack of knowledge of the industry. A good example of this is after studying I2, Ariba and Commerce One I can't truly say how important SCM is compared to other methods that may be used to accomplish what is known as SCM via another means. I have already read that the SCM management software is not nearly as important as perceived compared to some other integrated software solutions that will increase industry efficiency and performance. I read that but have no clue if that is true. Those are limitations we all have due the amount of technology currently in development. Glenn