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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mitch-c who wrote (42445)	2/21/2001 1:09:40 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

The biggest problem with BTB is that it's backward looking. Being a 3 month moving average published another month late; and only containing partial data in the preliminary numbers, we've already seen a much better forward looking number in the Earnings conference calls this month and their forward looking guidance. There just isn't any new news there. From Thompson I-Watch... AMAT -- Semicndr Equip & Matl -- Technology 21-Feb-01 12:05:24 Last night, Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) announced the January book-to- bill ratio fell to 0.81 from the previous month's 0.99 ratio, compared with estimates between 0.87-0.93. The ratio suggests orders continue to weaken, giving a gloomy outlook on the sector. Despite a horde of downbeat research reports, Credit Suisse First Boston interprets the ratio as a lagging indicator, rather than a leading indicator. The analysts argue the weakness is priced into the market, given warnings from firms like Applied Materials (AMAT). Investors appear to agree, with the Philadelphia Semi Index (SOX) up 23.1 to 635.2. One of the largest market movers in the sector is AMAT, trading up $2 3/8 at $48 5/16. While short-covering has certainly added to the gains, institutional buyers, looking ahead to improvements in the sector, have also aided the move. A burst of super buy messages before the start of the session, as shown on I-Watch's pre-trade chart, is representative of the institutional demand. The flurry of activity drove AMAT into positive territory, to trade progressively higher throughout the session. Note that buy message volume has tapered, as prices appreciated. Considering AMAT is up more than 6%, this is not surprising. Investors are still price conscious, given the disappointing performance over the last 6 months, and wary of sending prices too high too fast. Accordingly, a few brokers have begun posting super messages, as institutions take profits on today's move. Looking at the post- trade data, 2 blocks for 100k and 150k shares, respectively, traded at prices that were more than 1/4 point below the bid/ask range. This suggests sellers were behind the deals. Though today's evidence of institutional demand is certainly encouraging, remember that the semiconductors have a lot of recovery left.